Think tank predicts Korea's population to shrink to 7.5 million in 100 years

Elderly people sit under Mapo Bridge in Seoul, June 30. Yonhap

Korea’s population could decline to just 7.53 million — about 15 percent of its current size — over the next century, according to a new think tank report.

Published Wednesday by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future, the report shows that even under its most optimistic scenario, Korea’s population is projected to decline from 51.68 million today to 15.73 million by 2125 — less than one-third of its current size.

The institute’s projections use the internationally recognized cohort-component method to estimate future population changes by analyzing the three main components of population dynamics ― fertility, mortality and migration. The report underscores the exceptionally rapid pace of Korea’s demographic decline.

The scenario assumes Korea’s total fertility rate ― the average number of children a woman is expected to have ― will follow Statistics Korea’s official forecast until 2072. After that, it is held constant at three possible levels: 0.82 (low), 1.08 (medium) and 1.34 (high). Last year, the nation’s total fertility rate was just 0.75, the lowest in the world.

Under the moderate scenario, Korea’s population is projected to fall to 33.6 million by 2070 — a decline roughly equal to the combined populations of its four largest cities: Seoul, Busan, Incheon and Daegu.

“But the real shock comes after that, as the pace of population decline accelerates. By the year 2100, Korea’s population will have fallen to less than half of its current size,” the report said. “In the low scenario, the population is projected to be 14.66 million; in the medium scenario, 17.87 million; and in the high scenario, 21.65 million. Even in the most optimistic scenario, its population in 2100 would decrease to a level similar to the current combined populations of Seoul (9.33 million) and Gyeonggi Province (13.7 million).”

Meanwhile, the proportion of elderly people in Korea is projected to rise steadily from 20.3 percent this year to 40.1 percent by 2050, reaching 47.7 percent in 2072, according to the report. This would position the country among the world’s most aged societies.

This drastic demographic shift is expected to cause many problems.

Among the evident ones are the growing shortage of workers and rising welfare expenses.

Currently, about 100 people of working age (15–64) are supporting about 30 elderly people (aged 65 and older), the report said. But, even in its most optimistic scenario, 100 working-age people will have to support 108 elderly people by 2085.

To help reverse the trend, the researchers offered several recommendations to policymakers, including expanding support for child-rearing, extending the legal retirement age and reforming immigration policies to attract more foreign workers — particularly young professionals.

“The choices we make now can determine the fate of Korea our children and grandchildren will live in. Faced with the enormous wave of demographic change, will we be swept away, or will we navigate it wisely? Now is the time to make that choice,” the report said.