Kim Min-seok holds razor-thin lead as DPK race heads into final stretch

The Democratic Party of Korea’s leadership candidates prepare for a televised debate at KBC in Gwangju, Monday. From left are Song Young-gil, Jung Chung-rae and Kim Min-seok. Yonhap

The race for leadership of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is heading into its decisive final week, with no clear favorite yet emerging.

Former Prime Minister Kim Min-seok currently holds the lead, but his margin over ex-party leader Jung Chung-rae is just 1.48 percentage points, leaving the contest wide open ahead of crucial votes in Jeonnam-Gwangju Special Metropolitan City, North Jeolla Province and the Seoul metropolitan area.

With regional voting completed everywhere else, Kim currently stands at 46.01 percent, or 95,821 votes, followed by Jung with 44.53 percent, or 92,735 votes. Song Young-gil is currently in third with 9.47 percent, or 19,715 votes.

The gap between Kim and Jung is 3,086 votes.

Kim has finished on top in three of the four regional rounds held so far. He won the Chungcheong region in the opening weekend, while Jung took Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province. Kim then won Jeju and Incheon, followed by the combined Gangwon, Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province round last weekend.

Those results reversed the order from the first week, when Jung held a 0.99-percentage-point lead. Kim’s two wins over the weekend put him 1.48 percentage points ahead.

But the remaining electorate is far larger than the number who have voted so far, making it difficult to call either candidate the favorite.

Of the roughly 1.52 million registered party members who are eligible to vote, about 500,000, or 33 percent, are in Jeonnam-Gwangju Special Metropolitan City and North Jeolla Province, while another 580,000, or 38 percent, are in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. Together, the two areas account for about 71 percent of the party electorate.

That makes the votes in the southwestern regions the first major test. Voting by party members there runs from Tuesday through Friday, with the results to be announced Saturday. Results for Seoul and Gyeonggi Province will follow on Sunday.

The two leading candidates have stepped up attacks on each other as the race moves into its final week.

During a press conference at the North Jeolla Provincial Council, Jung accused Kim of making remarks suggesting that members of the controversial Shincheonji Church of Jesus were active within the DPK and said Kim should face an investigation.

“If I had said the same thing, I should be investigated, too,” Jung said. “Whether I become party leader or Kim does, he should voluntarily undergo an investigation.”

He also warned against dividing the party into factions based on their relationships with President Lee Jae Myung, saying, “The person who suffers the most from that is President Lee Jae Myung.”

Kim, meanwhile, criticized Jung’s leadership during a party event at Ajou University in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, referring to the party’s disappointing performance in the June 3 local elections.

“I was frustrated that the leadership failed to sort things out and party members ended up fighting among themselves,” Kim said. He separately pledged to begin preparations immediately for the 2027 Seoul mayoral and Gangneung parliamentary by-elections and seek a confidence vote on his leadership after the elections.

The winner will be announced next Monday at the party’s national convention in Daejeon.

Votes from dues-paying party members and national delegates account for 70 percent of the final result, with a public opinion poll making up the remaining 30 percent. The regional results released so far reflect only votes from party members.

Delegate votes and the public poll will be added for the final tally.

Another potential variable is the preferential voting system used in the leadership election. If no candidate wins a majority, the second choices of voters who ranked the lowest-placed candidate first are added to the totals of the top two candidates.

With Kim and Jung both still close to 45 percent and Song holding around 10 percent, those second-choice votes could become decisive if neither of the two front-runners clears 50 percent.

A separate Realmeter survey released Tuesday showed Kim leading more decisively among the general public, with 46.8 percent favoring him as the party's next leader, followed by Jung at 35.2 percent and Song at 6.5 percent. The remaining 11.5 percent said they did not favor any candidate or were undecided. Among dues-paying party members, Kim's lead was even wider at 51.8 percent to Jung's 41.1 percent and Song's 4.7 percent — a gap considerably larger than the narrow margin reflected in the regional voting tallies so far.

The survey was conducted Sunday and Monday among 1,053 DPK supporters and independents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.