Single candidacy could boost conservatives’ chances in Busan, survey shows

A by-election for a parliamentary seat in Busan, to be held alongside the local elections on June 3, is drawing keen attention for fielding heavyweight candidates, including a former senior presidential aide from the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), a former minister from the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) and a former PPP leader who was expelled from the party.

The focus is on whether the PPP candidate and former PPP leader will decide on a single candidacy for a united conservative front against the DPK contender, who is leading opinion polls.

The race for Busan’s Buk-A constituency has taken shape, featuring Ha Jung-woo of the DPK, a former secretary for artificial intelligence (AI) and future planning hand-picked by President Lee Jae Myung; Park Min-shik of the PPP, a veterans affairs minister during the Yoon Suk Yeol administration and former lawmaker for the district; and Han Dong-hoon, a high-profile independent running as a former justice minister under Yoon and former leader of the PPP.

Ha, a Busan native, has led recent polls since securing his nomination, fueling expectations that he will take the seat, which became vacant after the DPK’s Chun Jae-soo left the post to run in Busan’s mayoral election.

According to a survey commissioned by News1 and conducted by Gallup Korea from May 12 to 13 on 508 constituents aged 18 or older, Ha led the race with 39 percent of support, followed by Han at 29 percent and Park at 21 percent.

However, hypothetical matchups show that a potential conservative alliance could redefine the race, as conservative voters are currently split between Han and Park. If one of them drops out of the race and they field a unified candidate, the gap with Ha would shrink to the single digits, giving the conservative bloc a chance to capture the district.

In a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, Ha gained 46 percent of support and Han 40 percent, with the gap narrowing within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. If Ha and Park compete, the support for Ha would rise to 50 percent and Park 37 percent.

Either way, the conservatives’ chances of winning would increase, so calls are growing within the PPP and among conservative voters for a united candidacy.

The combined photo shows by-election candidates for Busan’s Buk-A constituency. From left are Ha Jung-woo of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, Park Min-shik of the main opposition People Power Party and independent Han Dong-hoon. Yonhap

However, many insiders say the likelihood of a unified conservative ticket is low for now, given the continued internal friction in the conservative bloc that led to the PPP ousting Han from the party.

Although Han was the leader of the PPP, he often clashed with hard-line, far-right members of the party, especially after Yoon’s martial law fiasco in December 2024, as those members disapproved of Han’s call to distance the party from Yoon. The disputes eventually led the party, under the leadership of current leader Rep. Jang Dong-hyeok, to expel Han in January this year.

While pro-Han factions within the PPP are urging Jang to make a bold decision and field Han as the unified conservative candidate, PPP leadership made it clear that the party is not considering a unified ticket for the district.

“The PPP candidate has the competitiveness to win on his own merits, without having to rely on political maneuvering to win,” party spokesperson Rep. Park Sung-hoon told reporters, Friday.

Cho Kwang-han, a Supreme Council member of the PPP, floated the idea of allowing Han to rejoin the party only if he drops out of the race and yields his candidacy to the PPP’s official nominee — an idea pro-Han members find unlikely.

The National Election Commission will start printing ballot papers starting Monday, so Sunday was considered the first deadline for a single candidacy announcement, to avoid voter confusion. A second deadline would be set for May 28, the day before early voting starts. If they decide on a candidacy merger afterward, the votes for the dropout candidate would be voided.

Further details of the survey above are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.