Seoul mayoral race tightens as Chong’s lead shrinks to within margin of error

Oh Se-hoon, right, Seoul mayor and current People Power Party candidate, and Chong Won-o, the Democratic Party of Korea candidate for Seoul mayor, applaud during an event celebrating Parents' Day at Jangchung Arena in Seoul, May 6, ahead of the June 3 election. Newsis

The Seoul mayoral race has tightened sharply, with incumbent Oh Se-hoon closing what was once a double-digit gap against his liberal rival Chong Won-o and pulling the contest to within the margin of error.

In a poll released Thursday by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday among 1,002 Seoul residents aged 18 or older, 44.9 percent of respondents said they would support Chong of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), while 39.8 percent backed Oh of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP).

Just three weeks earlier, in a KSOI poll conducted under the same conditions, Chong led Oh by 45.6 percent to 35.4 percent — a 10.2-point lead.

The surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.

Speaking to The Korea Times Thursday, experts said the narrowing gap reflects a mix of factors, including lingering voter distrust of liberal housing policies, questions about Chong’s past misconduct and controversy over the so-called “fabricated indictment” special counsel bill pushed by ruling DPK lawmakers.

On paper, both candidates offer similar-sounding real estate pledges: increasing the number of new homes and speeding up redevelopment of aging ones. But voters remain skeptical, analysts say, as they remember that under a previous progressive duo — former President Moon Jae-in and former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon — large new redevelopment projects were scaled back or slowed, even as housing prices hit record highs, fueling a perception that the liberal leaders mishandled supply — a constant attack line used by the Oh camp.

Graphic by Cho Sang-won

Experts also say the controversy over the special counsel bill — which would allow an independent counsel to withdraw indictments in ongoing trials, a mechanism that could potentially cancel some of President Lee Jae Myung's past criminal cases — fueled apprehension among moderate voters and became a drag on Chong's campaign.

“This issue is one of the key factors that keeps centrist voters from going to the Democratic Party or pushes them toward the People Power Party,” said Lee Jun-han, a political science professor at Incheon National University.

Meanwhile, old allegations about Chong’s past resurfaced after opposition party lawmakers highlighted his criminal conviction for assaulting four people in 1995, including two police officers, while serving as an aide to the head of Seoul's Yangcheon District Office.

Rep. Kim Jae-sub claimed the incident began when Chong allegedly demanded to spend the night with a female worker at a cafe, while Chong insists it stemmed from a dispute over differing views of the Gwangju May 18 Democracy Movement with the establishment’s owner.

“The problem is that Chong’s camp has looked reactive and defensive,” Lee said. “Instead of clearing the air in a clear and forceful way, the campaign seems on its back foot, which isn’t helping his election chances.”

Hong Hyeong-sik, a political analyst who runs Hangil Research, a pollster, said the tightening race also reflects a natural consolidation of conservative voters as election day approaches.

“By sidelining (unpopular PPP leader) Jang Dong-hyeok and decoupling the campaign from him, then shifting into an election phase built around a separate structure, conservative candidates have started to regain support as voters begin to wonder whether the party may actually be changing,” Hong said.

“These factors are stirring and energizing centrist voters in Seoul. Oh, who is already broadly positioned as a candidate for the political middle, has been well placed to benefit from that shift.”