Landslide outlook fades for DPK as races in PPP base tighten

The Democratic Party of Korea's Kim Boo-kyum, left, and the People Power Party's Choo Kyung-ho, both running for mayor of Daegu, raise their fists together during a Labor Day event hosted by the Federation of Korean Trade Unions at Daegu Sports Complex, May 1. Yonhap

What once appeared to be a near-certain landslide victory for the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is becoming more competitive as the June 3 local elections approach, with conservative candidates narrowing the gap in several key battlegrounds.

The shift comes as backlash grows over the DPK’s push for a special counsel bill tied to what the ruling party calls “fabricated prosecutions” under the previous Yoon Suk Yeol administration.

The controversy has energized conservative voters in parts of the country where the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) had appeared to be collapsing only weeks ago, particularly in the southeastern strongholds of Daegu, Busan and the Gyeongsang provinces.

Political observers, however, say the overall landscape still favors the DPK, arguing that what appears to be a conservative rebound may simply reflect traditional conservative voters returning to the PPP rather than a broad shift among swing voters.

Earlier in the campaign, some analysts had floated a “15-to-1 scenario,” referring to the possibility that the DPK could win 15 of the nation’s 16 mayoral and gubernatorial races, leaving only North Gyeongsang Province in conservative hands.

However, momentum began to shift after the ruling party moved forward with the special counsel bill, which includes a provision allowing indictments in ongoing trials to be withdrawn.

Opposition parties argued that the legislation could effectively shield President Lee Jae Myung by allowing a special prosecutor appointed under his administration to nullify indictments, including cases where he or his allies are at risk.

Recent polls suggest the race has tightened in several regions.

A survey conducted by Metavoice and Research Lab for JTBC on Tuesday and Wednesday showed PPP Daegu mayoral candidate Choo Kyung-ho at 41 percent and DPK candidate Kim Boo-kyum at 40 percent, placing the race within the margin of error.

In Busan, a Hangil Research poll commissioned by Busan MBC on May 1 and 2 showed DPK candidate Chun Jae-soo leading PPP incumbent Park Heong-joon 46.9 percent to 40.7 percent, cutting what had once been a double-digit gap to a single digit.

The Seoul mayoral race is becoming more competitive, with DPK candidate Chong Won-o leading incumbent Oh Se-hoon by a margin far narrower than the gap between the two parties' approval ratings.

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, center, and other People Power Party candidates for mayor and governor chant slogans after holding an emergency press conference over the Democratic Party of Korea’s push for the so-called “indictment cancellation” special counsel bill in front of Bosingak in Jongno District, Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

The ruling party has also shown signs of concern over the shifting mood.

Rep. Jung Chung-rae, chairman of the DPK, returned to Busan on Saturday to campaign for Chun, just days after making an earlier visit to the city. The move came amid growing concerns within the party that conservative voters throughout the southeastern region, including Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province, were regrouping around the special counsel controversy.

Political commentator Park Sang-byoung said the ruling party’s biggest risk is the growing perception that it has become overconfident.

“The most damaging label for the DPK right now is arrogance,” Park said. “The moment voters begin to feel the party is acting arrogantly, backlash becomes inevitable.”

Park said the controversy alone was unlikely to overturn the overall election landscape, particularly after the DPK signaled it may slow down the bill’s passage.

“Had the party pushed the bill through immediately, the impact could have been much greater,” he said.

“But the fact that this debate emerged at all right before the election could still be seen as a strategic miscalculation.”

He added that while the DPK’s approval ratings had slipped in recent weeks, the party still maintained a commanding lead over the PPP.

“For now, these are still relatively small fluctuations,” Park said. “But if controversies like this continue to pile up, they could gradually hurt the party heading into election day.”

Park Chang-hwan, a professor at Jangan University, argued that the apparent conservative surge was being overstated.

“I don’t see this as a major backlash,” Park said. “What we are seeing is more of an optical illusion.”

According to Park, many conservative voters had already intended to support PPP candidates but had become demoralized by the party’s internal conflicts, leadership controversies and nomination disputes.

“The party’s support had fallen to such an unusually low level that even a small rebound now looks dramatic,” he said. “This is less about conservative expansion and more about traditional conservative voters returning home.”

Park also criticized the DPK for becoming complacent over expectations of an easy victory.

“The ruling party appeared too comfortable with the idea that the election was already decided,” he said. “It failed to clearly explain why voters should support the party in this election, while spending too much time assuming momentum alone would carry it through.”

The Daegu poll, conducted by Metavoice and Research Lab for JTBC on May 5-6, surveyed 804 eligible voters in Daegu via wireless telephone interviews, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

The Busan poll, conducted by Hangil Research for Busan MBC on May 1-2, surveyed 1,013 eligible voters in Busan using wireless ARS, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.