Next decade to determine whether South Korea can become great power

A new government is in place after six months of interrupted democracy. Voters have cast ballots with apprehension and anticipation that a new leader will restore Korea's democracy as well as reputation as an advanced nation.

Lee Geun, a professor of international relations at Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies and former president of the Korea Foundation, hopes to inject a national vision that compels South Korea to join in the group of great powers that will rewrite and reshape global order in the next decade or so. His new book represents a scholastic attempt to reinterpret the theories put forward by the likes of John Mearsheimer and John Ikenberry, and offers his take on a liberal global order that is rules-based and multilateral in essence. This order has produced a generalized market, allowed by a global supply and value chain, where nations compete through their ability to exchange commodities rather than fight with military might.

Lee Geun, a professor of international relations at Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies and former president of the Korea Foundation, espouses a "great power" vision for South Korea in his new book "Great Power Scenario for South Korea by 2030." Courtesy of Lee Geun

"A great power is, simply put, a nation that can design the global order," Lee said. His book, titled "Great Power Scenario for South Korea by 2030," comes across as audacious and even a bit ahead of time. Only a decade or so ago, during the 2013-17 Park Geun-hye administration, there was talk of “middle power diplomacy," or the "dolphin" nation theory promoted by former Foreign Minister Park Jin, where Korea was depicted as a dolphin freely navigating between the United States and China.

Pressing Korea to become a great power at this juncture amounts to asking the nation and its people to make multiple somersaults in mindset and take advantage of the global supply chain and global value chains that tightly connect nations in a generalized market. In his view, Korea, with the world's 10th-largest economic engine and sixth-largest defense spending, and a K-pop powerhouse in the world, can and must do so.

It's a claim undergirded by the reality that it will be hard to surmount general nervousness as the rivalry between the United States and China continues, accelerating with the Fourth Industrial Revolution endowing dominant platform companies and countries with the power to design future ecosystems.

The intensifying competition between the U.S. and China in the next decade holds major implications because the liberal international order has been shaken by China's quantum growth in manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI), ready to challenge the U.S. for dominance.

"I believe the United States and China in the next decade or so will greatly alter the global world order. It is important for Korea, or for any country, to become one of the designer nations in the process," Lee said.

One of the drivers for Korea should be multilateral efforts instead of relying only on the traditional alliance with the United States, Lee said.

"If you were to cite one diplomatic tool for South Korea, it would be the ROK-U.S. alliance. We use this alliance to address North Korea issues, economic issues and regional ones, too. It's time to go beyond," he said.

He suggested two new multilateral mechanisms — the first being through the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral gathering, similar to the one former U.S. President Joe Biden pursued. The second would be a multilateral cultural entity Lee dubbed the "Creative 5" of South Korea, Japan, France, the U.S. and Britain to work toward jointly promoting cultural markets.

"If the president can make one (of the two) happen, he will be securing at least one foothold to become a great power during his term," Lee said.

This is daunting for South Korea, given that it does not have membership in the G7, NATO or the Quadrilateral Security Dialog. In addition, Korea’s frontline diplomatic officials have experienced frustration and difficulty in multilateral diplomatic settings after the Dec. 3 martial law debacle under former President Yoon Suk Yeol. Among the many policy pledges of the new administration, Lee noted the vision to become an AI power nation and create more leading platform companies may provide a platform to form multilateral partnerships. The new president has pledged to become Top 3 AI power nation, as well as invest 100 trillion won in cutting-edge industries. There is a catch, though:

"Korea needs to strengthen its counter-response ability against cyber crimes, as seen with the recent case with SK Telecom and the issue of securing the energy required to run AI systems. There hasn’t been much discussion about the ‘how-to’ regarding these two issues and it must be done,” Lee said.

How about the U.S. tariff strategy under the second Donald Trump administration?

“President Trump I believe is trying to correct and rebalance the ‘uncertainty’ caused in the global supply chain and value chain in the current world order (mainly by China). Right now, it may not look like the leadership of the world’s leading nation because it is in the stage of ‘fixing’ the disruption. And his excessive style is slightly affecting U.S. domestic politics,” he said.

But Korea must not lose sight of the real pillars of the liberal international order, which is accessibility of markets, enabled by the global supply and value chains. Regarding the tariffs, Lee believes that South Korea still has the ability to access markets and further grow and expand platform markets, including possessing "indispensable" industries such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, network management and nuclear power plants.

His book suggests controversial policy moves, including engaging in "strategic flexibility" involving military forces if required to protect regional and national markets, but also to help maintain the liberal international order. If necessary, it could involve the redeployment of U.S. forces in South Korea, as recently mentioned by USFK commander Gen. Xavier Brunson, alongside Korean forces.

"If Korea's global markets and supply chains are in danger, South Korea can help address imbalances in the geopolitical order," Lee said.

"In the example of the Taiwan case, if China takes action, the global implication is that decoupling between the U.S. and China will accelerate ... One of the first tangible effects Koreans would witness is a shrinking of Korea's international markets ... South Korea should do all it can to deter a possible Taiwan incident from ever happening."

The book took a long time for the professor to write, he said. He said he wanted to introduce an original interpretation of the global order, where global supply chains and value chains are just as important as the assets of traditional great powers, such as land and military might, which had been based mainly on interpretations of Western academia.

“But Korea needs to see that the global supply and value chains will permit us to make the jump,” Lee said.