Lee Jae-myung's lead narrows as conservative candidates gain ground

Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung raises his arms behind bulletproof glass during a campaign rally in Anyang, Gyeonggi Province, Saturday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

As the June 3 presidential election approaches, liberal frontrunner Lee Jae-myung maintains a lead in polls, but his margin over conservative rival Kim Moon-soo has narrowed, according to recent surveys.

Support for Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), has declined slightly, while conservative contenders — Kim of the People Power Party (PPP) and Lee Jun-seok of the minor Reform Party — have seen steady gains.

A Realmeter survey conducted in the fourth week of May showed Lee Jae-myung with 46.6 percent support, followed by Kim at 37.6 percent and Lee Jun-seok at 10.4 percent.

The poll, commissioned by Energy Economy News and released Saturday, was conducted from Thursday to Friday through automated telephone interviews with 1,009 eligible voters nationwide. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level, with a response rate of 8.3 percent. Full results are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.

Graphic by Bae So-young

Compared to the previous week, the DPK candidate's support dropped by 3.6 percentage points, while the PPP candidate's figure rose by 2 points. The gap between the two narrowed from 14.8 percentage points to 9.

Lee Jae-myung began the month with 46.6 percent support in the first week of May, comfortably ahead of Kim, who stood at just 27.8 percent amid internal discord within the PPP leadership over its candidate nomination process.

His support peaked at 52.1 percent in the second week, after a court postponed his trial on alleged election law violations until after the election. However, his numbers have slipped since, and the race has tightened.

Kim, on the other hand, has been gaining momentum steadily, rising to 35.6 percent in the third week and 37.6 percent in the fourth.

Notably, Lee Jun-seok has reached double-digit support for the first time — a development that has intensified calls within the PPP for a unified conservative candidacy.

Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok, left, shakes hands with people during a campaign rally in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Saturday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

Branding himself as a conservative alternative, Lee has attracted support from swing voters disillusioned with the PPP.

Recent polls suggest that a merger between Kim and Lee Jun-seok could give conservatives a strong chance of overtaking Lee Jae-myung.

The PPP has been ramping up pressure on Lee Jun-seok to withdraw and endorse Kim, in an effort to avoid splitting the conservative vote. But Lee has repeatedly rejected such calls.

"When voters receive their ballot, they will see clearly: No. 4 Lee Jun-seok, Reform Party," the 40-year-old politician said at a press conference last week, reaffirming his decision to stay in the race.

For the Reform Party candidate, finishing the race is crucial to broadening his influence within the conservative bloc. Also, his strained relationship with the PPP, which he led before being ousted in a power struggle, may make a merger less likely.

Sunday marked a key deadline for such a merger, as the National Election Commission began printing official ballots. Any withdrawals after this point will not be reflected on the printed ballots. Instead, notices will be posted at polling stations informing voters if a candidate has withdrawn.

Nevertheless, the PPP is holding out hope for a last-minute deal ahead of the two-day early voting period which begins Thursday. Since early voting ballots are printed on-site, a withdrawal finalized before then can still be reflected, with the word "withdrawn" printed next to the candidate’s name to minimize voter confusion.

The PPP is reportedly continuing behind-the-scenes efforts to persuade the Reform Party candidate to fall in line.

People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo bows deeply to voters during a campaign stop in Gongju, South Chungcheong Province, Sunday. Yonhap

A last-minute merger among conservatives proved to be decisive in the 2022 presidential race, when then-presidential hopeful Ahn Cheol-soo dropped out a day before early voting to endorse Yoon Suk Yeol — a dramatic move that helped Yoon achieve his narrow victory over Lee Jae-myung.

The DPK appears to be wary over the possibility of a similar merger this time.

"It’s clear that both are still vying for control of the conservative camp, so I believe they will eventually merge, revealing their true intentions," Lee Jae-myung said at a press conference Sunday, referring to Kim and Lee Jun-seok.

"In the end, they will unite, and we are preparing for that possibility."

Ballots for the June 3 presidential election are being prepared at a printing facility in Anyang, Gyeonggi Province, Sunday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk