Ex-opposition chief Lee Jae-myung widens lead in opinion poll

A person enters the election campaign office of Rep. Lee Jae-myung, former leader of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea, in Yeouido, Seoul, Sunday. Yonhap

Rep. Lee Jae-myung, former leader of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), has solidified his lead in the race for Korea’s presidency, commanding nearly half of voter support according to the latest polling, Monday.

While several politicians from the conservative bloc have announced their intention to run in the June 3 snap presidential election, their combined support rate was lower than Lee's.

According to a Realmeter survey conducted of 1,506 people nationwide from Wednesday to Friday, Lee held a commanding lead with 48.8 percent.

He was followed by former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo at 10.9 percent, acting President Han Duck-soo at 8.6 percent and former conservative People Power Party (PPP) leader Han Dong-hoon at 6.2 percent. Kim and Han Dong-hoon are two of preliminary candidates for the PPP, while the acting president is being mentioned as a possible contender for the conservative bloc.

Public sentiment is also advantageously inclined toward the DPK. In the poll, 58.7 percent said they should take power after the ouster of former President Yoon Suk Yeol over his Dec. 3 martial law declaration, while 35.3 percent said the PPP should continue governing.

The PPP is also facing internal turmoil as prominent moderates like Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former lawmaker Yoo Seong-min withdrew from the party's primary, highlighting growing dissatisfaction with its leadership. Their exit has intensified concerns over the PPP’s ability to attract centrist voters.

Compounding the party’s woes, former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo announced his presidential bid on Monday, casting the election as a stark choice between what he described as “a Hong Joon-pyo government and a Lee Jae-myung government.” In his declaration speech, Hong warned that under Lee’s leadership, Korea would become “a debt-ridden, corrupt country like Venezuela, dominated by populism and voter bribery.”

The timing of Hong’s announcement has added to the PPP’s challenges in organizing its primary. Internal disputes over candidate selection rules and leadership direction persist, further hindering efforts to present a unified front.

Former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo declares his candidacy for the 21st presidential election at his campaign office in Yeouido, Seoul, Monday. Yonhap

Political analysts believe the outcome of the PPP primary could be influenced by voters’ focus on selecting the most viable candidate.

Eom Kyung-young, head of the Zeitgeist Research Institute, noted that during a primary, voters are likely to back the candidate they believe has the best chance of winning the general election. Since Mayor Oh’s supporters have emphasized the need to choose a candidate who can defeat Lee Jae-myung, many are expected to shift their support to Hong, who has strong backing and significant presidential campaign experience.

Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, added, “Considering that the DPK is likely to portray the PPP as supporting Yoon's insurrection during the election campaign, a candidate who supported Yoon’s impeachment may be better positioned in the electoral landscape.”

Some within the PPP have floated the idea of drafting an outside candidate to bolster their chances, with the acting president being one such figure, but deep divisions and the reluctance of prominent figures to step forward have complicated those efforts.

The Realmeter poll was commissioned by Energy Economic News and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, with a credibility rating of 95 percent. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.