After the ruling: What's next for Korea's political future?

President Yoon Suk Yeol greets supporters after arriving at his official residence in Yongsan District, Seoul, March 8, following his release from Seoul Detention Center. Yonhap

The Constitutional Court is poised to rule on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment Friday, and all eyes are on how the decision will impact Korea's political landscape. The nation has been deeply divided for months, and with tensions running high, few expect the outcome — regardless of the ruling — to bring any real sense of resolution.

The ruling will lead to one of two scenarios: either the court upholds the impeachment, resulting in Yoon’s immediate removal from office, or it dismisses (or possibly rejects) the case, allowing him to return to his position.

The political landscape that emerges afterward is expected to look dramatically different depending on which path the court takes. Here’s a look at the possible scenarios.

Rep. Lee Jae-myung, chairman of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, speaks during a meeting at the party’s temporary headquarters in Gwanghwamun, Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

Upheld — early election within 60 days

If the court rules to uphold the impeachment, Yoon would be removed from office immediately, triggering a vacancy that the Constitution says must be filled through a presidential election within 60 days. Based on the precedent set by former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2017, the vote could be held on June 3.

In such a scenario, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is expected to rally behind its leader, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, as its presidential candidate. If an early election is called, Lee would likely step down as party leader and enter the race through a competitive primary.

For the ruling People Power Party (PPP), the path forward is more uncertain. A ruling to uphold the impeachment could spark outrage among Yoon’s base, many of whom believe the party failed to defend him. The backlash would likely target figures such as interim leader Rep. Kwon Young-se and floor leader Rep. Kweon Seong-dong, who have kept their distance from the hardline protest groups that have taken to the streets in recent months.

The PPP would need to navigate that anger while simultaneously preparing for an early election. A leadership contest is all but certain, with pro-impeachment lawmakers clashing with those who remained loyal to Yoon.

Rep. Kwon Young-se, right, interim leader of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), speaks with Rep. Kweon Seong-dong, floor leader of the PPP, at the National Assembly in Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

Dismissed — Yoon returns, but for how long?

If the court dismisses the impeachment motion, Yoon will return to office. In his final statement to the court, he indicated a shift in strategy, saying he would focus on foreign affairs while delegating more of the day-to-day domestic matters to the prime minister. He also signaled support for constitutional reform and political restructuring during the remainder of his term.

Whether he can follow through on that agenda remains unclear. If he does delegate more authority, acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo would be tasked with carrying the bulk of domestic governance. However, Han’s legitimacy has come under fire — particularly after he admitted that the martial law cabinet meeting lacked both procedural and substantive legitimacy.

There are also doubts over whether Yoon will truly pull back. Even within the PPP, some lawmakers are skeptical that he can govern effectively through the rest of his term. For them, a dismissal may do little more than delay the next political crisis.

The bigger challenge, however, lies with the opposition. Lawmakers who have labeled Yoon the mastermind of an attempted coup are unlikely to quietly accept his return. Concerns are mounting that dismissing the impeachment could ignite mass protests and spark broader unrest.

Rejected — political turmoil

If the court rejects the case on procedural grounds — effectively ruling that the impeachment should never have proceeded to trial — the opposition is likely to respond by pushing for a second impeachment. Within the DPK, some lawmakers have already floated the idea of impeaching Han again. A similar move against Yoon could gain momentum, particularly if conservative lawmakers who backed the original motion start to waver.

Such a development would almost certainly plunge the country into fresh political turmoil. Whether another impeachment bid gains traction will depend on how united the opposition remains—and whether fractures begin to show within the PPP.

Still, most observers believe a procedural rejection is unlikely, given how long and seriously the court has deliberated the case.