Yoon faces dilemma over vetoing bill to investigate Marine's death

President Yoon Suk Yeol gives a speech during an event celebrating May 8 Parent's Day in Seoul, Friday. Joint Press Corps

President Yoon Suk Yeol must decide — or may have already decided — whether to veto a bill launching a special counsel probe into allegations that the government interfered in an investigation into the death of a Marine during a flood rescue operation.

The decision, expected to be announced in the next couple of weeks, places the president in a major political dilemma.

As surveys show that nearly 70 percent of the general public supports the special counsel probe, a potential veto of the bill could further damage Yoon's abysmal job approval ratings.

However, conducting a comprehensive investigation into the allegations and holding a press briefing by the special counsel could potentially sow public distrust in the administration, regardless of the veracity of the circumstances surrounding the young marine's death.

The worst-case scenario for Yoon will be his veto being overridden during a revote in the National Assembly. It will send a clear signal of his weakening leadership within the governing party.

The Assembly railroaded the special counsel bill during a plenary session on Thursday, after the ruling People Power Party (PPP) exited the session in protest. The bill, pushed by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), targets the government's alleged interference in the military's investigation into the death of Marine Cpl. Chae Su-geun during a flood rescue operation in July 2023.

The bill aims to launch a sweeping investigation into officials at the presidential office, the Ministry of National Defense and Marine Corps, to look into whether they have exerted influence in the military's internal probe to omit allegations of criminal activity of individuals involved. By pursuing this course of action, the DPK aims to question high-ranking government officials, potentially including the president himself.

Marine Corps Commander Kim Gye-hwan enters the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) in Gwacheon, Gyeonggi Province, Saturday. Yonhap

Yoon's office has indicated that the president opposes the bill. Presidential chief of staff Chung Jin-suk said that ongoing investigations by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) are addressing related matters. Chung criticized the DPK for unilaterally pushing the bill for "political purposes" rather than genuinely seeking the "truth behind the death."

The PPP also released a statement, Sunday, suggesting that the bill's focus on investigating the presidential office and the manner in which the special counsel was recommended and press briefings held indicate that the bill is primarily aimed at political maneuvers rather than genuine investigative efforts.

The CIO, which has been criticized for its slow pace of investigation, is now expediting its probe. It subjected Marine Corps Commander Kim Gye-hwan to a 15-hour grilling session from Saturday to Sunday regarding allegations that he influenced the military's internal investigation. Specifically, he allegedly mentioned "the VIP" (referring to the president) being upset about the military's plan to transfer several implicated military officials to the police.

While a veto may shield the Yoon administration from a sweeping investigation, it would immediately invite criticism from the opposition parties. Two years into office, the president has already exercised his veto power to reject nine bills, which the opposition has condemned as abuse of power.

Rejecting another proposal could signal that President Yoon will face significant challenges in dealing with the DPK, which will hold control for the next four years.

"Yoon himself has said that 'the one who avoids a special counsel probe is the criminal,'" DPK spokesperson Choi Min-seok said. "If Yoon is confident, he should accept the special counsel probe bill."

The veto decision may also hamper the president's promise to listen to the voices of the public and collaborate with the opposition bloc, an approach adopted in the aftermath of the ruling party's crushing defeat in the April 10 elections, where the PPP managed to win only 108 seats in the 300-member Assembly.

A survey conducted by Embrain Public from April 29 to May 1 found that 67 percent of 1,000 respondents agreed that launching a special counsel probe into Chae's case should be enacted. Turning a deaf ear to such public sentiment may cause a further drop in Yoon's job approval ratings, which are hoverng slightly over 30 percent.

Marine reserves react to the passage of a special counsel probe bill into the death of a Marine surnamed Chae, during a plenary session of the National Assembly in Seoul, Thursday. Yonhap

Making matters more complicated for the president is the possibility that his veto may not prevail, as an Assembly revote could overturn it. The DPK plans to table the bill on a revote during a plenary session in the last week of May, if the president vetoes it.

A bill returned to the Assembly for a revote requires the attendance of a majority of present members and approval from more than two-thirds of attending members to pass.

With a total of 296 present members in the current Assembly, the bill can be approved with 198 in favor. The opposition bloc holds 180 seats, including the DPK and its satellite party's 155 seats. This means that at least 18 votes from ruling party lawmakers favoring the bill would ensure its passage.

PPP Rep. Kim Woong, who was the only ruling party lawmaker to remain during Thursday's plenary session and voted for the special counsel bill, wrote on Facebook Monday that the party has a "lack of empathy toward the young man who unjustly lost his life" and "this is the point showing our party's limitations."