Ruling party leader running out of charm 1 month before elections

People Power Party interim leader Han Dong-hoon delivers a speech during a canvassing event in Seoul's Yeongdeungpo District, Tuesday. Joint Press Corps

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) sees its narrow lead over the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) diminishing in recent surveys. This is stoking fears among conservatives that Han Dong-hoon, the party leader whose personal popularity helped the moribund ruling party rebound from a major defeat in a district leadership by-election, is now running out of "charm" just weeks before the April 10 general elections.

According to a survey by Realmeter released on Monday, the PPP secured a 41.9 percent support rating, compared with the DPK's 43.1 percent. The 1.2 percentage point gap is within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The PPP was 7.1 percentage points ahead of the DPK in last week’s survey, which was the first time in a year that the ruling party had a lead outside the survey’s margin of error. However, the situation reversed within just a week.

Other recent surveys showed that the PPP is still maintaining its lead over the DPK within margins of error, but at the same times showed that ruling party candidates are trailing behind their rivals in battleground electoral districts.

In a survey by Embrain Public, 42 percent of 500 voters in Incheon’s Gyeyang-B constituency said they prefer DPK Chairman Rep. Lee Jae-myung over the PPP’s former Transport Minister Won Hee-ryong with 39 percent.

In Yangsan-B of South Gyeongsang Province, 41 percent of 503 voters supported DPK candidate Kim Doo-kwan, while PPP candidate Kim Tae-ho had 34 percent. In Seoul’s Jung/Seongdong-A constituency, DPK candidate Jeon Hyun-heui secured 35 percent and PPP candidate Yun Hee-suk received 31 percent in questions to 501 voters.

Democratic Party of Korea Chairman Rep. Lee Jae-myung, center, speaks during an election committee meeting at the party's headquarters in Seoul, Wednesday. The backdrop reads: "April 10, judgment day of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration." Yonhap

Analysts suggest that while the PPP initially gained support due to Han's personal popularity and the DPK's internal feuds, this support may not translate into public backing for individual PPP candidates.

“It seems like the PPP and Han have already reached their peak in the current electoral landscape, but if they fail to come up with new election tactics, all that's left for them is descending,” said Park Sang-byeong, a political commentator and a professor at Inha University.

“The PPP was able to take the lead earlier this year due largely to Han’s presence and the DPK’s bloody infighting over candidate nominations, giving an illusion that this was Han’s political ability. However, the candidate nomination process is over and the results seem questionable at this point.”

Citizens gather for a canvassing event by People Power Party interim leader Han Dong-hoon in Seoul's Yeongdeungpo District, Tuesday. Joint Press Corps

After taking the PPP’s helm last December, Han quickly salvaged the party from dismal public support and is now wrapping up its candidate nomination process in a stable manner by giving candidacies to the party’s mainstream politicians and serving lawmakers.

However, his political ability within the party faced questions after controversies stirred over past far-right comments by Do Tae-woo, a PPP candidate in Daegu. Do claimed in a 2019 YouTube video that “in the past, it was reasonable to think that North Korea influenced the 1980 democratic uprising in Gwangju.”

On Monday, Han demanded that the party’s candidate recommendation committee reconsider running Do, but the party on Tuesday night decided to retain his candidacy, saying Do has already issued apologies.

DPK election camp co-chair Kim Boo-kyum said Wednesday that “Han was quite stylish when he ordered the party to reconsider Do’s candidacy, but today he is very disappointing.”

Lawyer Do Tae-woo speaks during a press conference at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, Jan. 17, 2022. Korea Times photo by Oh Dae-keun

Han’s unyielding political stance toward President Yoon Suk Yeol has also shifted.

In January, Han clashed with the president over first lady Kim Keon Hee’s acceptance of a Christian Dior bag from a left-wing pastor, reflecting negative public opinions. However, he is now defending Yoon’s decision to appoint former Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup as the new ambassador to Australia, despite public suspicions that the appointment is aimed at helping the former minister avoid ongoing investigations by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) regarding the death of a young Marine.

“What people expected for Han is that he would be different from former PPP leaders who never stood up to Yoon,” Park said.

“Han himself is an influential figure. His clear rhetoric and neat personal styling are propelling him as the conservatives’ next presidential prospect. However, his celebrity-like popularity needs to be interpreted to the political capabilities of the party, and the recent cases raise questions to that.”

The DPK’s attempt to reunite itself and the rise of former Justice Minister Cho Kuk’s party are working against Han.

As the DPK’s candidate nomination process nears its end, a number of party members who cried foul over their exclusion from the roster decided to stay with the party to play their role in the “judgment of the Yoon administration.” It appears that Cho’s party has absorbed the support lost by the main opposition during the internal feud, leading pundits to describe the Korea National Party as “the safety net of the DPK.”

Korea Innovation Party head Cho Kuk speaks during a press conference at the National Assembly in Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap

The Korea Innovation Party is rising above the new parties formed for the April 10 general elections, scoring double-digit support ratings in surveys questioning preferred parties for proportional representation. The party’s political goal of “ending the Yoon administration early” is more aggressive than that of the DPK.

“The rise of Cho’s party means that the idea of handing down judgment on the Yoon administration is rekindling,” Park said. “While Han’s slogan of ending (the DPK’s) politics that is run by former progressive activists is not creating repercussions, the current election landscape is witnessing a showdown between the opposition and Yoon, not the DPK versus the PPP.”

The Realmeter poll was commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper and surveyed 1,006 voters from March 7 to 8. The Embrain Public poll was requested by YTN and interviewed respondents from March 9 to 10. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.