Busan Expo bid failure feared to draw political backlash

President Yoon Suk Yeol takes out his statement on Busan's failed bid to host the World Expo 2030 during a press conference at his office in Yongsan District, Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

Busan’s devastating defeat in its bid to host the World Expo 2030 is feared to draw political backlash against President Yoon Suk Yeol and the ruling party, with a blame game set to start with serious questions being raised over the government’s diplomatic capabilities.

During the General Assembly of the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE) in Paris on early Wednesday, Busan won 29 out of 165 votes by member states, lagging far behind Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh with 119 ballots. Italy’s Rome secured 17 ballots. Since Riyadh gained more than two-thirds of the total ballot, no second-round voting took place.

Yoon appeared hours later on a live broadcast following the outcome issuing an apology to the public, saying “I am solely to blame for everything.”

Since taking office in May 2022, Yoon has spent more time and budget on overseas trips than any of his predecessors for two major goals — redefining Korea’s diplomatic status and promoting Busan’s Expo bid.

To this end, Yoon had more than 150 summits with the leaders of 96 countries. Particularly, Yoon visited Paris twice this year alone, dedicating the visits to BIE delegations and diplomatic corps.

During the campaign, officials at the presidential office said that Busan was an underdog, but staging a neck-and-neck race with Riyadh. They were almost certain that Busan would pass the elimination round and stage a final showdown in the second-round of voting, citing their own calculations.

In an interview with broadcaster YTN two days before the BIE voting, Busan Mayor Park Heong-joon said, “in a probability of 90 percent, Korea will advance to the second round” and “Korea will be able to absorb ballots that were given to Rome in the first round, when it advances to the second round.”

A banner board promoting Busan's bid to host the World Expo 2030 is taken away from the city's Haeundae District Office, Wednesday. Yonhap

Against this background, the opposition will likely raise doubts over the visits and the government’s diplomatic capabilities in judgement of the outcome.

The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) is yet to criticize Yoon or the ruling People Power Party (PPP) in its official commentaries, focusing on consoling Busan citizens instead. DPK Chairman Lee Jae-myung said it was a regrettable outcome and the DPK would make efforts to help assist Busan to carry out other pending projects.

However, DPK Rep. Jung Sung-ho wrote on Facebook that “sadly though, this is the level and the capability of the incapable, irresponsible and unprepared Yoon administration.”

Before the Expo result, the DPK had already taken issue with the cost of Yoon’s overseas trips, saying he spent a record high 57.8 billion won ($44.83 million) this year alone, while that of the average yearly expense for previous President Moon Jae-in’s overseas trips was 20 billion won.

Citing this, DPK floor leader Hong Ihk-pyo said on Tuesday “Yoon has spent busy days and made efforts for diplomacy for Busan’s Expo bid” but “it appears to be Yoon leaking the country’s capital to foreign countries, rather than drawing investments.”

“There could be controversy over the costs of Yoon’s foreign visits,” said Eom Gyeong-yeong, director of the private political think tank, Zeitgeist Institute.

“To somewhat extent, the government’s approach to the Expo bid seemed to be exaggerating, failing to have objective analysis on the current status while being obsessed with promoting the bid as an achievement of the administration … This kind of result may happen, but the government was supposed to be more candid about letting the public know about the true situation through communications, rather than promoting optimism.”

Yoon also noted this point in his apology that the government and the private sector all did their best but “the predictions turned out to be way off.”

Given the government possessed too optimistic a view on the Expo bid, based on wrong predictions, Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, said that the outcome has brought doubt and tarnished trust over the government’s diplomatic capabilities.

“It seems that the government has raised the expectation too high, as if the second-round voting is guaranteed,” Shin said.

“The Expo bid may fail, but what if this was other diplomatic agenda? The efforts of the government and the private sector are understandable, but the top priority for the Yoon government to exit from the Expo failure is dispelling the doubts on the trust of the government’s capability in collecting right information about the current situation.”

Busan citizens wave flags to support the city's bid to host the World Expo 2030 at Busan Citizens Hall, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Experts said they expect the Expo outcome will likely have impact on the ruling bloc’s campaign for the upcoming general elections in April next year, at least in the short term.

“The wide margin is a crushing blow,” Eom said. “In the short-term, it will likely be have adverse impacts on the ruling bloc’s race for the general elections in their strongholds of Busan and the surrounding region.”

“The possible exit strategy is styling the result as a well-fought defeat and the Expo campaign as an opportunity to expand the country’s diplomatic stage,” he said.

As Eom said, the PPP is highlighting the additional gains of the Expo campaign.

“The diplomatic experience we earned during the campaign will be a stepping stone for Korea to serve as a global pivotal state,” PPP Chairman Kim Gi-hyeon wrote on Facebook.

PPP senior spokesperson Rep. Park Jeong-ha said in a statement that the country should be proud of itself for its efforts to host the event, adding “the efforts of the government, businesses, people and President Yoon Suk Yeol, who personally promoted the Expo bid to the leaders of 82 countries, will never be in vain.”

“It is hard to ignore the possible impact on the general elections, but this issue will not likely stay as a long-term election agenda given the time remaining,” Shin said.

“However, it is import to note that a negative image will remain for the ruling bloc over the failure.”