APEC summit to play pivotal role in Yoon's China policy

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a summit at a hotel in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022. Yonhap

President Yoon Suk Yeol will depart for San Francisco on Wednesday to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and a possible one-on-one meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Experts anticipate that a dramatic shift in the two countries’ strategic direction is unlikely in the envisaged summit, but the planned meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Xi, and the protracted war between Ukraine and Russia, will give momentum for the two sides to explore common ground.

Yoon will make a four-day visit to the United States to attend the APEC summit and discuss ideas to facilitate economic partnerships for sustainable growth with participating leaders. He will also showcase South Korea’s efforts to contribute to the global battle against climate change.

Gaining greater attention during Yoon’s stay is a summit with Xi. The U.S. announced, Friday, that Biden and Xi will meet on Wednesday to discuss a range of regional and global issues.

Although Seoul has yet to confirm a Yoon-Xi meeting, chances are growing that the Asian neighbors may also meet in San Francisco. If so, it would be their first summit in a year, following one in Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022.

Relations between Seoul and China have recently shown signs of improvement following a meeting between Yoon and Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and a separate meeting between South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and Xi, both in September.

Those meetings came amid the quickly strengthening trilateral strategic cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, which was an alarming sign for China. Due to its concerns about growing U.S. influence in Northeast Asia, Beijing found it necessary to pull South Korea to its side.

At the same time, South Korea also needs China’s leverage in controlling the dangerous military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, especially given Moscow's purported technological support for Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.

“As seen on the recent Seoul-Washington foreign ministers’ meeting, South Korea’s talking points will be asking for China’s constructive role in addressing North Korea’s nuclear threats, including Pyongyang’s military cooperation with Moscow,” said Lee Dong-gyu, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

On Nov. 9, Seoul’s Foreign Minister Park Jin and his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken had a meeting in Seoul and urged China to help tame NK-Russia military ties. Park said, “I believe China is not in a position to welcome the closer military cooperation and arms trade between the North and Russia.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, Russia, Sept. 13. AP-Yonhap

China's talking points are anticipated to be Seoul’s support of Beijing’s One China policy, especially regarding Taiwan, as the country is set to elect its new president in January next year.

While ruling Democratic Progressive Party nominee Lai Ching-te is maintaining a lead by endorsing Taiwanese independence, opposition candidates are acknowledging the One China policy in consideration of economic benefits from China.

“Even if the summit takes place, the problem is that the gap between the political interests of South Korea and China is too wide,” Asan’s Lee said. “Given this, it will be difficult for the leaders to reach an agreement or a cooperation scheme, and end up acknowledging each other’s position while stressing mutual respect.”

Despite the differences, the current fence-mending mood between the U.S. and China is anticipated to affect the Yoon-Xi talk in a positive way.

In the run-up to the Biden-Xi meeting, senior officials of Washington and Beijing had a string of engagements aimed at easing tensions, managing their competition and preventing conflict.

This direction is expected to continue, as the U.S.' diplomatic capabilities are stretched between the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, and a third conflict would cause significant problems.

“Since the U.S. is already juggling two frontiers, another one in Asia would pose a tough challenge to Washington’s diplomatic capabilities,” Lee said. “If the Biden-Xi talks manage to alleviate the two superpowers’ tensions, the talks between Yoon and Xi can go in a way that Seoul does not always have to incline to the U.S. and employ policies aimed at containing China.”