Hurdles remain for Lee Nak-yon in presidential bid

Rep. Lee Nak-yon of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea holds a press conference at the National Assembly in Seoul, Tuesday, as he steps down from the party's chairman post in a move to prepare for the next presidential election set for March 9, 2022. Yonhap

By Jung Da-min

With just a year left before the next presidential election set for March 9, 2022, Rep. Lee Nak-yon, a potential candidate from the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), stepped down from his post as party chairman, Tuesday.

Lee resigned as the DPK's internal regulations stipulate that a party member who plans to run in the presidential race must quit major leadership posts within the party, such as chairperson or Supreme Council member, at least a year before the election.

Political analysts said more time is needed to judge whether Lee's presidential bid will be a success as many variables and events could emerge to affect the political dynamics and public opinion with a year left before the election.

Recent polls have not been favorable for Lee, who had topped approval ratings for presidential hopefuls for months until the general election last April. He is now far behind other presidential contenders such as Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl. A poll released on Monday showed Lee Nak-yon with a 14.9 percent support rating, compared to Lee Jae-myung's 24.1 percent and Yoon's 32.4 percent.

But analysts said the results of the April 7 mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan will serve as a barometer of Lee's future success as a presidential hopeful, as he is the head of the party's election committee ― which does not violate the internal regulations ― and people would assess his leadership based on the election results. Also, it was under Lee's chairmanship that the party revised its own regulations in early November to field candidates for the Seoul and Busan by-elections.

Under the previous regulation, the DPK had been unable to field candidates for the mayoral posts, which have remained vacant following the suicide of Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon in July and resignation of Busan Mayor Oh Keo-don in April last year. Both Park and Oh were DPK members and both faced sexual harassment allegations, while a regulation stipulated that the party will not field a candidate for a by-election that was triggered by one of its members resigning to take responsibility for a wrongdoing.

“The possibility of Lee Nak-yon as a presidential hopeful will be revived if the DPK wins the Seoul mayoral by-election,” said Cha Jae-won, a professor at the Catholic University of Pusan. He said the result of the Seoul mayoral election will be a barometer of whether Lee could successfully gain a ticket to enter the presidential race.

“If he leads the party to victory in this difficult election, Lee's approval rating as a presidential hopeful will rebound, backed by many supporters of President Moon Jae-in. But if the DPK loses the election, Lee stands to face criticism for causing the party to lose the public's trust by pushing ahead with the revision of party regulations.”

Political commentator Park Sang-byoung also said the Seoul mayoral by-election will mark the first political challenge for Lee as a potential presidential hopeful. Park said even if the DPK wins in the Seoul by-election, Lee will still face further political tasks.

“He will need to extend the range of his supporters to include centrists (in addition to strong DPK supporters),” Park said. “He will also have to display a more active and determined leadership which he was unable to do before as the ruling party chairman, as the post required a prudent approach to various issues. But as a presidential hopeful, he will need to present his own unique ideas on various issues.”