Kim Jong-un seeking internal regime strength in latest speech

Members of the Ministry of People's Security join others as they pay their respects before the statues of the late North Korean leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang, Monday, on the 67th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice agreement. / AFP-Yonhap

By Do Je-hae

Questions are rising about what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meant with his focus on nuclear deterrence at a veterans' event held this week to mark the 67th anniversary of the 1953 Korean War armistice.

“Thanks to our reliable and effective self-defensive nuclear deterrent, there will no longer be such a word as war in this land. Our national security and future will be firmly guaranteed forever,” Kim was quoted as saying by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the North Korea's state media, Tuesday.

The remarks came amid rising concerns about North Korea's economy, which is believed to have been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier this week, Pyongyang announced the closure of Gaeseong, a border city with South Korea, after a former defector to South Korea who, according to the North, is suspected of having COVID-19 symptoms, illegally crossed back into North Korea.

Experts told The Korea Times Tuesday that Kim's renewed focus on nuclear deterrence has several implications, internally and externally.

“Kim's remarks are intended to work on several levels,” said Mason Richey, a professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “They bolster internal regime strength during a difficult economic and public health phase, while also reiterating to the outside world that North Korea is a nuclear-armed state that will never relinquish its nuclear weapons.”

Some believe the speech has more to do with internal reasons than external ones.

“The veterans' conference is not a venue for new policy pronouncements, but rather where Kim reassures the Korean War generation that national security is in good hands with the current leadership,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

Donald Kirk, an author and correspondent on Korean Peninsula issues, said, “Kim needs to show that he is still the strongman leader despite COVID-19 and a severely weakened economy. He is posturing as much for impact on his own people, notably the military and others who may be losing confidence in him.”

There is also a message in Kim's latest speech for South Korea and the U.S., ahead of the U.S. presidential election, according to analysts.

“Kim is also signaling to the U.S. and South Korea that any perceived weakness in North Korea doesn't make the North vulnerable externally, as Pyongyang's nuclear weapons serve as a backstop,” Richey added. “Kim is reminding the U.S. that if and when diplomatic negotiations resume, denuclearization will not be on the table.”

Others say Kim left room for talks, which is consistent with things his powerful sister Kim Yo-jong recently said regarding denuclearization. But it is the dominant view that there is little hope of any immediate resumption of U.S.-North Korea talks.

“Kim's statement leaves the door cracked ever so slightly open to the future resumption of denuclearization diplomacy ― he does not say the nuclear deterrence is permanent, rather, peace and security are what is guaranteed forever,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies.

“In that sense, it is consistent with Kim's sister's recent statement that they are not saying they will never give up their nuclear weapons. Of course, the point of negotiations and diplomacy is get things moving in the right direction. There has been no such progress since Trump met Kim in Hanoi, and Kim's latest statement gives little hope for any imminent resumption of constructive talks or 'action for action."