Winner in premier duel to leap forward in presidential bid

Lee Nak-yon of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea running in the Jongno District in central Seoul in the general election casts his vote at a polling station in Gyonam-dong, Wednesday. / Korea Times photo by Lee Han-ho

By Kang Seung-woo

For some political bigwigs, Wednesday's general election was about more than winning a seat in the 300-strong National Assembly. With the next presidential election slated for March 2022, each party is expected to begin to field its candidate by the end of next year.

In that respect, high-profile politicians' victories in the quadrennial general election could mean them taking one step forward as potential presidential contenders, while those who suffer defeats may see their political careers ― let alone their presidential bids ― at risk.

As election season unfolded earlier this year, all attention was focused on the Jongno District in central Seoul as two former prime ministers from the incumbent and previous governments ― Lee Nak-yon of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and Hwang Kyo-ahn of the United Future Party (UFP) ― declared their candidacy for the constituency. Lee was Moon Jae-in's first prime minister, while Hwang was former President Park Geun-hye's last prime minister and served as acting president while she awaited a Constitutional Court decision on her impeachment.

In addition, the showdown carried extra weight as they were the top-two most favored presidential hopefuls in many public surveys, meaning the loser could be sent packing from the presidential race. The constituency itself has a history of producing three heads of state, Yun Po-sun, Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak, all of whom have represented the district.

In that sense, it seems Lee has taken a step forward as ballot counting as of 11 p.m. showed he beat Hwang by nearly 20 percent 57.4 percent to 40.9 percent. The journalist-turned-politician, who is expected to win a fifth term in the Assembly, was also the governor of South Jeolla Province.

“By winning over his presidential election rival, Lee has established himself as a leading presidential candidate within the DPK,” Hangil Research director Hong Hyeong-sik said.

Hwang Kyo-ahn of the main opposition United Future Korea running in the Jongno District in central Seoul in the general election signs his name on the registered voter list at a polling station in Hyehwa-dong, Wednesday. / Korea Times photo by Oh Dae-geun

“Although Lee was a four-term lawmaker and local government head, he has stayed away from the National Assembly, raising questions over his political base and leadership within the Assembly despite his rising status as a presidential contender. But his victory in this election could ease those concerns, helping his presidential bid gain momentum.”

Hong added: “With no solid candidates emerging from the ruling party, Lee could be regarded as the party's most viable presidential hopeful.”

Cho Jin-man, a political science professor at Duksung Women's University, echoed Hong's view, saying that Lee could raise his presence against other party hopefuls.

“It is significant to win in Jongno after defeating Hwang,” he said.

However, the professor said triumph there does not mean that there will be a red carpet straight to the presidential election.

“Given that Lee is not seen as President Moon's top confidant as South Gyeongsang Province Governor Kim Kyoung-soo is, Moon and his loyalists may try to field a presidential candidate from their side,” Cho said.

“Lee would be placed at an inflection point, while facing political challenges and experiments on his way to becoming a presidential candidate on the DPK's ticket.”

As for Hwang, who is also the UFP chairman, political analysts said he would see his role diminish with the conservative party.

“Defeat means the loss of the party leadership as well,” Hong said, adding the former judge's days as politician might be numbered.

“During the election, his political immaturity and lack of political capability were exposed, so it would be a tough decision for the main opposition party to leave him at the helm ahead of other elections.”

Cho said, “As a party leader, Hwang will not be free from criticism for the UFP's defeat in the election and it will not be easy for him to hold up under the pressure.

“Due to the loss, Hwang will no longer be in the driver's seat and he is expected to seek ways to resurrect his damaged reputation.”