COVID-19 to affect election turnout, results

Postmen and university students promoting the work of the National Election Committee's Daejeon branch encourage people to vote in the April 15 general election at the Daejeon Post Office, Thursday. Yonhap

By Jung Da-min

The protracted COVID-19 outbreak has become a major variable in the upcoming general election while other political matters are gaining little attention in the shadow of the all-consuming virus issue, according to political watchers, Sunday.

Watchers say voters are more likely to vote without enough information about the candidates and their promises, as well as the parties, than in previous elections, as the media has been focusing on the virus spread and containment despite the elections being just around the corner.

Political pundits have presented different expectations over voter turnout and how the pandemic will affect the result of the elections. Some said the turnout will be lower than before but others say it will remain at similar levels to previous polls.

Park Myoung-ho, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Dongguk University, said voter turnout will be lower than previous elections as people will be reluctant to risk lining up and going inside a closed room to cast their vote.

“When the voter turnout is low, it usually means young voters do not come out to vote as older voters' turnout doesn't change much. If so, it will be advantageous to the conservative opposition bloc,” Park said. “People in their 30s and 40s and the elderly, 60s and over, show clear support for liberals and conservatives, respectively, but those in their 20s are mostly swing voters, and their votes will decide which bloc will win.”

Choi Young-il, a political commentator and adjunct professor at Kyung Hee Cyber University, also said he expects voter turnout to fall compared to previous general elections. But he said the conventional notion that such a drop in the turnout will bring advantages to the conservatives, currently the opposition, is no longer valid.

“Until the early 2000s, it had been considered that a lower turnout gives advantages to the conservatives as the fall was more likely to be among young voters,” Choi said. “But this is not the case in recent years; what's more important is how strongly the enthusiastic supporters will unite, either for the liberals or conservatives.”

Choi also said young voters are no more supportive of the liberal government and some of them have chosen to be the “new conservatives.” “We see young men and women's gender hatred of each other, online petitions to ban entries from China over the virus fear, and 1 million signatures for an online petition to impeach President Moon Jae-in. The formula that the young generation is liberal, doesn't work anymore.”

Shin Yul, a political science and diplomacy professor at Myongji University, said voter turnout will not be affected much by the pandemic, as turnout is an expression of people's desire or willingness to show their “anger” toward the current administration.

“If more people believe the government has done well with the COVID-19 situation, voter turnout could be low as they do not feel the need to express their anger, thus bringing an advantageous situation to the ruling party. But recent surveys have shown that more than 80 percent of voters said they will vote in the upcoming election,” Shin said. “Conventional thought that a high turnout is advantageous for liberals will not be valid in the upcoming election, when the voters want to judge the government.”

Kim Jun-seok, a politics professor at Dongguk University, said other political issues have not gained attention and only the assessment of the Moon government's response to the virus outbreak has remained as a valid variable in the upcoming election.

“A high turnout would be bad news for the ruling party when the general election is usually considered as a judgment of the current administration,” Kim said.

Political watchers also say this election result is especially hard to predict when there have been many election rule changes, with “satellite parties” of the exiting parties being set up, and voters not being well-versed in such political maneuvering.