PM Lee holds clear lead over opposition rivals

Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon speaks during an interview with Yonhap at his office in Seoul, Dec. 26. Yonhap

By Park Ji-won, Kim Yoo-chul

Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon is clearly holding his ground this year as the “right candidate” for the next South Korean leader.

The latest Realmeter poll showed the outgoing PM leading among other ruling Democratic Party Korea (DPK) and main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) politicians as South Korea's next presidential candidate with support of 29.1 percent, compared with 20.1 percent for LKP chief Hwang Kyo-ahn and 8.8 percent for Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung. Lee has led his rivals for seven consecutive months.

Now, Lee is set to be a DPK candidate in a key Seoul precinct in the crucial April general election. Political analysts say chances are very high that the PM will be elected.

Lee, the longest serving prime minister since South Korea adopted a direct presidential election system in 1987, broke his silence about the next stage in his political career, saying in a recent interview that he would run in the general election in the Jongno district.

Former National Assembly Speaker Chung Sye-kyun holds the seat, but as President Moon Jae-in nominated Chung as the next prime minister, if the Assembly approves Chung for the position a few weeks before the election comes up, Lee will run in the election.

In South Korea where power is concentrated in the executive, the prime minister is a largely symbolic post and the only Cabinet member position whose nomination requires Assembly approval. In general, minister-designates must undergo a confirmation hearing at the Assembly, but the President is not bound by any recommendations made and can appoint nominees to the assigned posts despite Assembly disapproval, as Moon has done so in previous cases.

Lee told JTBC he was “put in the situation” to run in Jongno.

“Of course, the final adjustments should be made in consideration of the Assembly schedules and the DPK's decisions,” he added when asked about whether his candidacy for the general election has been confirmed.

The Jongno district has been one of the key battlefields for the general election as it has been filled by political heavyweights or potential presidential hopefuls who later became president such as Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Myung-bak.

The DPK has recently been battered by problems with powerful potential presidential hopefuls due to a series of scandals. An Hee-jung, a former governor of South Chungcheong Province and widely regarded as a DPK presidential candidate was jailed for sexually assaulting his secretary.

The general election is widely regarded a key barometer of public opinion of the Moon administration for the second half of his term. Despite Moon's initial rapid diplomatic rapprochement with North Korea when he took office in 2017, no visible results have been seen and inter-Korean relations have worsened recently. The economy is also in bad shape, and soaring apartment prices are contributing to the denting of Moon's job approval ratings.

The DPK and presidential aides are aiming to “declare victory” in the April general election to prevent the President from earning lame duck status, and to move forward with Moon's “engagement-centric” inter-Korean initiatives.

Critics were divided over Lee's next political steps.

Some said Lee may quit his past position ahead of the elections to position himself as the DPK candidate for the country's presidential election in 2022 while the party is not enjoying overwhelming public support. In the meantime, other views were that he may not make such a bold decision risking criticism for “deserting” the office.

“Through campaigning for the upcoming election, he is apparently trying to create a political force within the party supportive of him, which could help his potential presidential bid in the future,” said Choi Young-il, a political analyst.

Lee began building his career as a journalist, before becoming a lawmaker, governor and prime minister. Until taking the PM position, Lee had long been considered a minor figure within the DPK with a small political faction mostly because of his rejection to join the then-ruling Uri Party under the Roh Moo-hyun administration.

“Of course, the election campaign is a double-edged sword; if it ends up with bad results, Lee needs to take responsibility for it and ruins his political career. However, there is no way but to take that risk… If he is able to create a support group through this election, he would get some momentum toward the presidential election,” Choi said. He added that the April election will not give the party an easy victory as there is still a chance for the LKP to seek a coalition among conservative forces.

Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, expected Lee won't take “risks” by running in the April election.

“If he resigns as prime minister, he will be considered as an irresponsible person giving up on the administration. In that case, people will not consider him as a potential presidential hopeful. Even if things go well and the Assembly approves Chung's nomination, the DPK will not support Lee because he is not part of the pro-Moon faction,” Shin said.