Trump's Pyongyang visit still feasible: experts

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un greet each other during their surprise meeting on June 30 at the military demarcation line in the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas. Yonhap

By Lee Min-hyung

U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to make a historic first trip to Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sometime near the end of the year, if the two countries reach an agreement on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, experts said Wednesday.

In a recent handwritten letter to Trump, Kim invited the U.S. president to the North Korean capital and spoke of his willingness to meet him for another summit, according to several diplomatic sources here.

Trump and Kim have met three times since their first encounter in Singapore last year to discuss ways to resolve the North's nuclear program. But substantive progress has yet to be made. Trump subsequently said he would be willing to meet Kim at “some point later this year.”

Sources said Trump's uncertain reelection prospects and the threat of impeachment, ironically, increase the likelihood of his potential push for a “political show” by visiting the North Korean capital in a first for an incumbent U.S. leader.

The basis for this is that the threat of impeachment would undermine the U.S. president's value as a negotiating partner. Regardless of its result, the ongoing moves on Capitol Hill will divert the administration's attention and resources from policymaking. The experts also said it will also drain the Trump presidency of much of its remaining political capital, a scenario that the U.S. leader does not want to see.

“Trump's Pyongyang visit is still feasible in consideration of the audacity he displayed during the surprise mini-summit with Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border area,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said. “In the same vein, a trip by Kim to Washington could be possible in the future.”

Yang, however, said Trump will opt to do so only for political gain, that is toward the end goal of his reelection in 2020.

“Trump will never visit North Korean territory unless Pyongyang makes specific and bold pledges on nuclear disarmament,” he said. “Trump is also well aware that any repetition of such a broad peace agreement as that signed in Singapore last year will only end up drawing a political backlash back home.”

Kim Yeol-soo, head of the security strategy office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs (KIMA), said Trump was hoping to take “political advantage of North Korea” to boost his support ratings before the presidential election.

“At least, Trump should be able to obtain the North's promise to scrap the state's major nuclear facility in Yongbyon and plus alpha,” Kim said. “This is a minimum level agreement that Trump should reach with Kim Jong-un during any possible summit in Pyongyang.”

Reports have said the North Korean leader expressed a willingness to deliver a speech next year on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, in a letter sent to Trump in August.

Regarding these, Seoul's Foreign Ministry said: “The reports are far from the truth.”

The experts also said the scenario is not realistic at present, but things could change in line with how the North alters its current stance and takes steps for nuclear disarmament.

“My view is that there is still a chance for Kim Jong-un's potential trip to New York next year,” KIMA's Kim said. “But this will only become a reality after the North takes concrete steps for nuclear disarmament and succeeds in getting sanctions lifted by the U.N. and international society.”

North Korea has agreed to resume working-level nuclear talks with the United States Oct. 5, Choe Son-hui, the North's first vice foreign minister, said Tuesday evening.

The announcement, which comes about three months after the Kim-Trump encounter at the inter-Korean border in June, raises the possibility of a breakthrough in the talks that have been stalled since February, when the leaders' meeting in Hanoi failed over how to pace sanctions relief with steps to dismantle the North's nuclear program.