'Moon's peace drive facing challenges'

President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during an inter-Korean summit at the Baekwhawon State Guesthouse in Pyongyang last Sept. 19. Yonhap

By Lee Min-hyung

It will take more time for President Moon Jae-in to generate a visible outcome as a mediator and facilitator in the stalled denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang as the United States is still unlikely to reach a possible “one-shot big deal” with North Korea in the foreseeable future, experts said, Friday.

They say the South Korean government needs to come up with a fresh way to resume the stalled nuclear talks at a time when the year-long mediating role has reached a deadlock and shows no signs of generating results in the short term.

Christopher Ford, assistant secretary for the U.S. Department of State, recently updated Washington's position of taking such an approach during the possibly upcoming talks with Pyongyang.

“It may be, moreover, that such a one-time solution set can sometimes be generated within the nonproliferation enterprise itself,” he said in an address at the American Academy for Strategic Education.

The remarks conflict with the North's preferred stance of seeking to engage in incremental approaches having the United States in the nuclear disarmament talks. Pyongyang was hoping to get a limited sanctions relief from Washington in exchange for taking phased denuclearization steps. There were calls that Washington needs to take quite a flexible assessment in handling nuclear talks with the North.

“Our experts provide technical support for the U.S. negotiations with North Korea over denuclearization, so that we are prepared to implement denuclearization if and when Pyongyang proves willingness to fulfill its promises,” Ford said.

President Moon is slated to hold a summit with Trump later this month. Moon asked the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for their fourth in-person encounter before Trump's upcoming Seoul visit. Moon wants the North's young leader to get back to the negotiating table with the U.S.

Experts argue that the key lies in how to draw a change of stance from the North.

“To keep the dialogues between Washington and Pyongyang moving forward, the most important thing is to make North Korea change its position,” an expert familiar with the North Korea issue said. “But chances are low at the moment for Moon to be able to bring any drastic changes from North Korea even if he holds a summit with Kim before the meeting with Trump,” he said.

“Kim Jong-un will meet with Moon only if he can win benefits in denuclearization talks with Trump,” the expert said. “But the current diplomatic circumstance shows otherwise.” President Moon brokered two previous Trump-Kim summits, but the latest Hanoi meeting between them ended without results.

In the U.S. political circle, no concrete consensus has been reached over approaches to the nuclear talks with the North. Against the backdrop, there appears a little progress to boost momentum for nuclear diplomacy under Moon's leadership, according to the expert.

“We cannot pinpoint what the mainstream opinion in the U.S. is over the nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang,” he said.

Another Seoul-based expert on inter-Korean affairs said South Korea needs to take a fresher approach to engage more actively in the ongoing nuclear talks as a mediator.

“Washington and Pyongyang urge Seoul to take part in the talks as a party directly involved in the issue, not as a third-party negotiator,” he said. “But they do not say in detail what the active role that the South should take is.”