Denuclearization will be long process: 38 North founder

Joel Wit, center, founder of the U.S. website 38 North, speaks during a morning meeting on the prospects of the upcoming second North Korean-U.S. summit with ruling Democratic Party of Korea lawmakers at the National Assembly, Tuesday. Yonhap

By Park Ji-won

Denuclearizing North Korea will be a long process, even if North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agrees to give up his nuclear arsenal in his second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, according to Joel Wit, founder of the North Korea-monitoring website 38 North, Tuesday.

He stressed the world should be realistic about what will happen between the U.S. and North Korea.

“I have an eye on whether their agreement will include dismantling all North Korean facilities making fissile materials. North Korea agreed to dismantle all of their fissile material production facilities, including those beyond the Yongbyon nuclear facility and more,” Wit said during a breakfast meeting with lawmakers at the National Assembly. “However, those are North Korea's words, not ours.”

On whether he is optimistic or pessimistic about the situation, Wit said, “I don't think we should be either. I like to say we need to be realistic.”

An agreement to dismantle all facilities and grant access to the suspected sites not located at Yongbyon would be an enormous first step, he added. “We have to accept the reality that if denuclearization happens and if North Korea gives up its most threatening missiles, that is going to happen in phases over a long period of time.”

The meeting was organized by ruling Democratic Party of Korea lawmakers to ask him about the prospects for the Kim-Trump summit amid uncertainties about the details on the two countries' agreements on denuclearization of the North.

Wit also stressed that the standard for the summit's success will not be immediately apparent, but there is a certain consensus in Washington that there has to be more substance than the first summit offered.

The success “could mean some real action items, such as moving forward with inspections of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and complete dismantlement and inspection of the Sohae Space Launch Facility,” he said. “It could also mean recording commitments made by both sides before the summit in private ― such as the North Korean pledge to dismantle its fissile material production facilities. Finally, it may mean the beginnings of a phased roadmap that leads to the twin objectives of denuclearization and a peace treaty or peace regime.”

Regarding the challenges surrounding the summit, he said, “There is the challenge of negotiating acceptable deals with North Korea. That can be hard but also can go surprisingly fast. That's my experience in negotiating the 1994 Agreed Framework that took a few weeks.”

“There will be the enormous challenge of implementing deals, particularly denuclearization and agreements covering North Korea's missile force. They will take years, require large numbers of people and cost billions of dollars.”

He also commented on the domestic challenges Trump faces. “There is going to be a strong temptation on the part of Democrats to trash whatever President Trump accomplishes, even though the North Korea policy is unlikely to be an election issue unless we return to nuclear confrontation.”