By Lee Min-hyung
North Korea may follow in similar footsteps of Vietnam in diplomacy if the regime’s upcoming peace dialogue with the United States proceeds smoothly as planned, a North Korea expert said Tuesday.
In 1995, Vietnam normalized its diplomatic relations with the U.S. after both sides agreed to end their severed ties of 20 years. Even if Vietnam is still a one-party communist state, the landmark event allowed the country to make a series of good moves in economic development and enhance its national image across the globe.
Vietnam has, therefore, been cited as one of the most ideal and probable models of diplomatic success that the North can copy to normalize its worst-ever economic troubles. The single-party structure of Vietnam, which poses little leadership threat, is also in a similar direction to what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pursues for a stronger grip on the regime.
“North Korea is also seeking to maintain the current sole party system, while at the same time open up the regime for diplomacy on the international stage,” said Paik Hak-soon, director of the Center for North Korean Studies at Sejong Institute.
“But Pyongyang is expected to face a bumpy road ahead toward the drive due to the ongoing nuclear issues,” he said.
The remark came at a critical time when the North sent a rare message for peace with the U.S., with its leader Kim Jong-un promising to take steps for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump may hold a summit before the end of May, as the latter accepted Kim’s proposal for holding peace talks amid thawing inter-Korean relations.
The rare mood for peace between Washington and Pyongyang came as part of President Moon Jae-in’s efforts to mediate talks between the two sides at this year’s PyeongChang Winter Olympics in South Korea.
After Kim expressed his strong will for peace with Seoul earlier this year, President Moon has concentrated on enhancing not just inter-Korean relations, but ties between Washington and Pyongyang by mediating possible dialogue.
“We need to take a wait-and-see approach regarding how Pyongyang handles the nuclear issues during the possibly upcoming dialogue with Washington,” said the expert.
“I would say now is the critical juncture where the North can take advantage of its negotiating cards with the U.S., after the regime’s botched attempt for dialogue with Washington in 2013,” he said.
Since the third-generation dictator of the Kim dynasty inherited power in 2011, Kim sent two signals for dialogue and peace to the U.S.: one in the summer of 2013 and the other in 2018. The North offered to hold high-level talks with the U.S. in 2013 by showing its will for denuclearization. This ended up in failure, with the U.S. ignoring the offer and threatening to strike the regime with nuclear weapons, according to the expert.
“But things are different this time, as Trump accepted the proposal from Kim and both sides are in a rosy mood for dialogue at least at the moment,” Paik said.
He said, unlike back in the early 2010s, the U.S. cannot ignore the North due to its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) that can strike the U.S. mainland.
“At the moment, there is no way for the U.S. to block the regime’s ICBMs were they launched at a normal angle,” he said.
To put an end to such a military conflict against Pyongyang, Washington has no choice but to continue holding dialogue and persuade the regime to give up its nuclear weapons for good, according to the expert.