By Kim Hyo-jin
Concerns are rising over how North Korea will respond to South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s proposal for improving stalled inter-Korean relations in a speech delivered in Berlin Thursday.
Pundits said Friday that Pyongyang is unlikely to respond to Moon’s reconciliatory approach for the time being as it is expected to continue focusing on developing its nuclear and missile programs following its purportedly successful test-tiring of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
But they agreed the North could positively view parts of the proposal, including halting hostile activities in the heavily-fortified demilitarized zone (DMZ) dividing the two Koreas.
Moon outlined North Korea policy directions including seeking a peace treaty, joint economic projects and denuclearization with a security guarantee for the Kim Jong-un regime in the speech at the Korber Foundation.
Stressing the need to pursue easier tasks first, he proposed reunions of Korean families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War on the Oct. 4th Chuseok holiday; North Korean athletes’ participation in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games; ending hostile activities in the DMZ; and the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue including a summit.
“These are appropriate suggestions if you are really aiming to improve inter-Korean relations,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University. “But it is a different matter as to whether the North will accept them.”
Park said Pyongyang will continue occupying itself with nuclear and missile development until it reaches a stabilized level, rather than engaging in dialogue.
“The Hwasong-14 ICBM is viewed as incapable of attacking the U.S. mainland yet. Elaborating and miniaturizing a nuclear warhead is still a work in progress. Now that it was buoyed by what they claim a successful ICBM test-firing, Pyongyang will keep these as priority tasks,” he said.
Pushing for the reunion of the separated families, though not something new for the two Koreas, is still difficult to be realized at this time, the pundits said.
“The chance is low, considering Pyongyang has demanded Seoul return 13 female North Korean defectors, who it claims were abducted by the South Korean government, in exchange for a potential family reunion,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said.
“Also, another obstacle could be that Moon did not mention resuming the suspended tour program to Mount Geumgang in the North where a family reunion is likely to take place if realized.”
The prospect of having a North Korean team in the upcoming Olympics is also not rosy. Chang Ung, a North Korean member of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), responded negatively to Moon’s earlier proposal for it, saying, “Trying to resolve the inter-Korean relations with an athletic approach is naive.”
But pundits agreed that North Korea will welcome stopping hostile activities along the inter-Korean border as it has been sensitive to the issue.
“Alleviating tension along the DMZ is also what the North has hoped for,” Koh Yoo-hwan, a North Korean studies professor at Dongguk University said, noting Pyongyang has shown hysterical responses to loudspeakers being activated along the DMZ or South Korean civic groups sending leaflets over its territory.
“South Korea also needs to open a direct hotline with North Korea. Dialogue between military officials can be easily realized, in that sense.”
Kim Yeon-chul, a professor at the unification department of Inje University, said for the inter-Korean summit to take place, the Moon government should take follow-up measures to live up to his proposal.
“It will take time to rebuild trust between the two Koreas,” he said. “The more important thing is how smartly Moon raises follow-up measures like a proposal for military-level talks or Red Cross talks for the reunion of separated families.”