By Kim Rahn
After former President Park Geun-hye was put behind bars over the massive corruption scandal, attention is now on how the arrest will influence the May 9 presidential election.
Some expect it will not have a great impact on the current situation where liberal candidates are sweeping the top rankings in opinion polls, considering more than 70 percent of the public wanted Park’s arrest. But others say Park wearing a prison uniform could cause an emotional protest from conservative voters and sway them to cast sympathy votes for conservative candidates.
The largest liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) forecast that public sentiment, which is calling for a change in government after the corruption scandal of the conservative Park administration, will stay the same despite her arrest.
For now the party has the best chance to win the election, as the combined support for the party’s three contenders ― former party leader Moon Jae-in, South Chungcheong Province Governor An Hee-jung and Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung ― stands at nearly 60 percent.
But officials of the three contenders’ camps are closely monitoring the situation, because the arrest could unite the conservatives and influence liberal voters to pay less attention to politics as the scandal has been settled for the time being. They are contemplating whether they will need to revise their campaign strategies according to how the situation develops.
“The arrest may slow down the rise of Moon’s support as conservative voters might unite in protest against the arrest,” an official at Moon’s camp said. “But on the other hand, it may arouse public demand for justice and rather boost support for Moon.”
Officials at An’s camp also said the arrest will unite not only conservatives but also liberals, so there will be no major changes in the current situation.
Ahn Cheol-soo, a contender from the minor liberal People’s Party, who is known to be “less progressive” than DPK hopefuls, expects the arrest will help increase his support. Ahn has recently emerged as the runner-up in opinion polls.
“Mid-right voters may disapprove of Park’s arrest. We expect them to turn away from left-wing DPK contenders,” an official at Ahn’s camp said.
The largest conservative Liberty Korea Party (LKP), in which Park is a member, is hoping “shy Park” voters will come forward. South Gyeongsang Province Governor Hong Joon-pyo, who is the party’s candidate, has instigated anti-Moon sentiment by saying prosecutors are currying favor with Moon because he is the frontrunner.
But on the other hand, the LKP is concerned that the arrest will remind people of the scandal and this may not be helpful for it, which is labeled as Park’s party.
The minor conservative Bareun Party, which was formed by dissenters from the Saenuri Party, the predecessor of the LKP, has called for rooting out Park’s corruption, so it believes the arrest will confirm their political choice was right. But it also worries that the arrest may consolidate its stigma as “betrayers” among Park supporters.