Hospitalization periods to nearly double in 2035 due to aging population

Medical students take off doctors' gowns as a performance to protest the government's move to raise the annual enrollment quota of medical schools, in central Seoul, Dec. 17, 2023. Yonhap

The number of days of hospitalization for the entire population over the next decade is forecast to nearly double, due to the growing demand for checkups and other medical services driven by the country's transition into an aging society, according to data offered by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, Wednesday.

The ministry said the data suggests a justification for the government’s ongoing move to raise the annual medical school enrollment quota to secure more physicians for the future.

The data is expected to work against doctors’ opposition to the quota hike, as a doctors’ group has argued the government should rather decrease it, as a population decline caused by low birthrates will reduce demand for medical services.

After analyzing materials submitted by the National Health Insurance Service and Statistics Korea, the health ministry forecast the number of hospitalization days of the entire population to reach 200.5 million in 2035. The figure showed a 45.3 percent increase from 138 million days tallied in 2022.

The ministry also forecast the number of visits of outpatients to increase by 12.8 percent to 1.06 billion from 930 million during the 10-year period.

According to an estimation offered by Statistics Korea, the number of people aged 80 or older is expected to rise by 82.7 percent during the same period.

In addition, the health ministry said budgets that facilitate checkups for the people have nearly doubled to 3.8 trillion won ($2.8 billion) in 2022 from 1.9 trillion won in 2013, noting that demand for such services will continue to rise amid growing interest in health care.

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The ministry has been seeking to raise the annual enrollment quota of medical schools – reportedly by more than 1,000 in 2025 — to help stop or at least slow down deepening regional disparities in medical services and prepare for an aging society.

The total admissions quota of the 40 medical schools in Korea has remained unchanged at 3,058 since 2006.

To reflect the increased quota in the 2025 admissions, the health ministry is required to deliver its decision on the number to the education ministry by April, preferably sooner.

Because of this procedure, the health ministry asked the Korea Medical Association (KMA), which represents doctors, to give its opinion about the scale of the quota hike by Monday. But the KMA overrode the request and passed the deadline.

Members of the Korean Health and Medical Workers' Union hold a press conference in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, Dec. 17, 2023, to support the government's move to raise the annual enrollment quota of medical schools. Yonhap

The doctors’ group publicly opposes the quota hike, urging the government to address more urgent issues first, such as improving working conditions for physicians. The group also raises concerns that an increasing number of medical students could adversely affect the quality of medical education.

The health ministry and the KMA held the 26th round of their consultation regarding medical policies including the medical school quota hike, later on Wednesday, amid heightened tension following the announcement by the Korean Intern Resident Association (KIRA) on Sunday that 86 percent of 4,200 interns and resident doctors across the country agreed with staging collective action if the government pushes ahead with the quota hike.

The health ministry expressed its regret over the announcement on the following day, saying, “The government will stick to laws and principles and react sternly to any unlawful behavior.”