Has Korea passed peak of 3rd wave of COVID-19?

By Bahk Eun-ji

Daily new COVID-19 cases remained at the 600 mark here for Sunday, the third consecutive day, with government officials commenting that the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic has appeared to have passed its peak.

Considering the potential for localized infections and the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, however, many are calling for caution against such premature optimism.

“I am cautiously saying that I think the third pandemic wave has passed its peak,” Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said during a National Assembly plenary session Friday.

“The number of daily new COVID-19 cases is on the decline and the reproduction rate has stayed slightly below 1 over the past week,” Chung said.

In fact, the daily caseload, which had soared to nearly 1,200 per day, has been in the 600 range for three consecutive days of the last seven ― a clear sign that it could be abating.

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), the nation reported 665 more COVID-19 cases for Saturday, including 631 local infections, raising the total to 68,664.

The figure was slightly up from a one-month low of 641 Saturday, the fewest daily infections since Dec. 8, while the country's daily virus figure stayed below 1,000 for the sixth consecutive day.

However, epidemiologists pointed out that the government should keep a tight rein on quarantine work in order for the current declining trend to continue as it has not yet reached the stage where it can be assured.

“There are still sufficient conditions for the virus to become active again. If you look at the situation overseas, there are places where the epidemic repeats rather than ending with a single peak,” said Choi Won-seok, a professor of the division of infectious diseases at Korea University.

“Hopefully it will continue to get better, but we can't be so sure yet, so keeping up with stricter virus curbing measures is of the utmost necessity,” Choi said.

Jacob Lee, a professor of infectious medicine at Hallym University Medical Center, also said the daily infection rate could start to increase at any time.

“If the current quarantine measures such as the stricter social distancing level are loosened just because the situation has become a little better, the number of patients will go up just like last November, then we would face fourth and fifth pandemic waves throughout the winter,” Lee said.

“It will be far better to keep the current level to some extent,” he added.

The government has imposed Level 2.5 social distancing in the greater Seoul area, which is the second highest in the nation's five-tier system, and Level 2 measures in other areas since Dec. 8. It extended the measures last Monday until Jan. 17.

Private gatherings of five or more people are prohibited across the country during the extended period.

Although health officials believe the third wave is subsiding, helped by the stronger distancing rules and preemptive testing, experts said they should keep a watchful eye on sporadic cluster outbreaks and a new virus variant that was first reported in the United Kingdom.

“I hope the government doesn't frequently signal that the current situation is getting better, because you became used to the number of daily cases at 1,000, you can easily misunderstand that 800 or 600 are in the safe zone,” Choi said.

Among the locally transmitted cases, 179 were reported in Seoul, 189 in Gyeonggi Province and 32 in Incheon, west of Seoul. Twenty-five additional deaths were reported, raising the toll to 1,125.