Will COVID-19 pandemic die down with vaccine rollout?

By Bahk Eun-ji

With mass vaccinations beginning around the world, people are wondering if the end of the prolonged pandemic is in sight.

Likewise, many Koreans are pinning high hopes on the government's series of vaccine rollout plans but experts expect it will take quite a while for vaccinations to bring the coronavirus completely under control. Moderna, the U.S. biotech company, confirmed Thursday that it signed a deal with the Korean government to provide 40 million doses of its vaccine.

“It is highly likely that the pandemic will continue into the second half,” said Choi Won-seok, a professor of the division of infectious diseases at Korea University.

“I don't think the pandemic will end overnight as the virus is too contagious and is well adapted to human hosts. In addition, animals such as pets and minks are easily infected, so the virus outbreak is likely to repeat. But the vaccine rollout, which is a great achievement for sure, will restore normal daily life by reducing the fatality rate.”

Even if vaccinations begin, the government and experts agree that the number of daily new cases would not be reduced immediately as it usually takes more than half a year for mass immunization after vaccinating.

“The United States and the United Kingdom have started vaccinating, but the number of patients is not decreasing right away,” said Ki Mo-ran, a professor of preventive medicine at the National Cancer Center.

“After all, it is important to reduce the number of virus patients by proper quarantine measures.”

Health authorities said the vaccine supply will begin in the second quarter, as the country has secured enough doses to inoculate 56 million people, more than the nation's total population of 52 million. As well as vaccines secured last year from Moderna and COVAX, the government has signed deals to buy vaccines for 10 million people from AstraZeneca, 6 million from Johnson & Johnson's Janssen and 10 million from Pfizer.

"The amount of vaccine doses exceeds 100 percent of the nation's total population,” Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) chief Jeong Eun-kyeong said. “It is enough to achieve mass immunization.”

Mass immunity is possible when 60 percent to 70 percent of the population has antibodies that can respond to infectious diseases through vaccination, meaning that even if some of the secured vaccines cause serious adverse reactions or become unavailable due to distribution problems, it can be achieved with the remaining amount.

“We are planning to receive the vaccines by COVAX in the first half of the year, between February and April if possible. Negotiations on the amount and provision date are still underway,” Jeong said.

Under the current plan, the vaccine deliveries will begin in the first quarter, starting with AstraZeneca's, followed by Janssen and Moderna's in the second quarter and Pfizer's in the third.

Meanwhile, Korea's daily new coronavirus cases rose above 1,000 again. According to the KDCA, Friday, 1,029 new COVID-19 infections were reported for Thursday, including 1,004 local cases, raising the total caseload to 61,769.

Among the locally transmitted cases, 358 were reported in Seoul, 271 in Gyeonggi Province and 63 in Incheon, west of Seoul. Seventeen additional deaths were reported, raising the toll to 917.