Pandemic will continue, vaccine gives no guarantee: experts warn

Ju Young-su, right, a doctor at the National Medical Center heading the bed management team of the Central Clinical Committee for Emerging Disease Control, speaks during a press conference at the National Medical Center Building in Seoul, Aug. 25. Yonhap

By Bahk Eun-ji

Even if a COVID-19 vaccine is developed, it neither guarantees an end to the pandemic, nor promises to work any better than wearing masks, according to public health experts.

As the latest uptick in the number of new virus infections rings alarm bells ― especially in Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi Province ― many wonder when the spread of the virus will reach its peak and then begin to decline.

“We have to wait at least eight months for the coronavirus vaccine; next spring at the earliest. It seems everyone looks forward to a vaccine development, but I have to say that it is hard to expect a vaccine that prevents the virus from further spreading completely or reduces mortality,” said Oh Myung-don, chairman of the Central Clinical Committee for Emerging Disease Control, and a renowned infectious diseases physician at Seoul National University Hospital.

“There is no guarantee that the vaccine will be better than the preventive effect of the masks we use.”

The Central Clinical Committee is an organization of doctors who are in charge of treating COVID-19 patients.

At the early stage of the pandemic in March, Oh once defined the ongoing situation as a “long-term game” that could continue for more than a year, urging the government to map out countermeasures, especially with regard to development and supply of vaccines and treatments.

The committee said a vaccine is the only thing that can derail the scenario but it would take time for one to be ready, considering the case of Spanish flu (H1N1) infections in 1918. Oh said the first surge of H1N1 took place in the spring of 1918 and recurred in the autumn, on a much bigger scale ― nearly five times the initial one.

However, the committee said even if a vaccine is released to the public, the end of the pandemic won't be eased simply by reducing the mortality rate.

Oh cited the fact that “vaccines for respiratory diseases are usually not as effective as other ones.”

Among the respiratory organs that viruses such as COVID-19 penetrate, airway mucosa and the nasal cavity are open gateways to our bodies, so there is a limit to preventing respiratory diseases as antibodies formed by vaccines operate internally.

Because of this, he explained that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said any COVID-19 vaccine that prevents disease or decreases its severity in at least 50 percent of the people who receive it can win regulatory approval.

“Even if the vaccine is released, it will not end the pandemic. In this regard, for now, keeping personal hygiene rules such as wearing masks, keeping personal distance and washing hands frequently are bound to be more immediately effective than any vaccine,” he said.

In other words, it is much more important to find a balance between daily life and quarantine rules, although vaccines will reduce the spread and severity of the disease.

The committee also urged the public to be extra careful about high-risk activities in daily life such as face-to-face conversations, singing and extreme exercise.

“If you breathe through your mouth, the virus enters your lungs directly, making it easy for the virus to infect you and lead to severe pneumonia.” Oh said. “Wearing a mask is important, but you should also be careful about breathing with your mouth as well.”

Regarding the necessity of raising social distancing measures from Level 2 to 3, the committee said the decision should be made carefully in consideration of social and economic repercussions and that lockdown measures to contain the virus can never be a long-term solution.

Hospital bed shortage looms

The soaring number of new daily infections also raises concerns over the possibility of a hospital bed shortage in the country as the number of patients in critical condition rises.

Since Aug. 14, Korea's daily new cases have been in the triple digits. The high rate of infections in elderly patients is keeping health authorities vigilant as the number of patients requiring critical care can surge rapidly.

“We believe the situation where the most people hospitalized in intensive care units will be around Aug. 30,” said Ju Young-su, a doctor at the National Medical Center, heading the bed management team of the committee.

He arrives at that conclusion taking into account the incidence of critically ill patients according to the age distribution of COVID-19 patients and the fact that patients enter into the critical five-day period after the onset of symptoms on average, Ju said.

From Aug. 14 to Aug. 25, 933 new cases were reported, mostly traced to a right-wing Protestant church in northeastern Seoul. Among them, 386 were aged 60 or older which stoked fears of shortages at critical care units.

The committee said patients in critical condition who do not need oxygen therapy any longer could move to a general bed, but not if the general beds are already occupied by patients with mild conditions.

“We are having discussions with hospitals to predict the number of intensive care unit beds every day to make them available for seriously ill patients. To secure the space for such patients, we have to limit unnecessary prolonged stays and hospitalizations as well,” Ju said.