Iran war raises prospect of shifting USFK assets to Middle East

A U.S. Air Force B-52H strategic bomber conducts a South Korea-U.S. joint aerial training exercise over the Korean Peninsula, together with Republic of Korea Air Force F-15K fighters and U.S. Air Force F-16s on July 13, 2023. Courtesy of Joint Chiefs of Staff

Officials in Seoul and Washington are monitoring the possibility that, should the conflict with Iran extend beyond initial expectations, some U.S. military assets currently based in South Korea — including air defense systems and other rapidly deployable units — could be sent temporarily to the Middle East, a prospect that has raised concern about readiness on the Korean Peninsula.

Military experts interviewed by The Korea Times said a limited redeployment, particularly of air defense systems, could not be ruled out. Still, they emphasized that any such move would likely be carefully calibrated to avoid weakening allied deterrence on the peninsula.

Washington has drawn on forces from the Korean Peninsula in the past.

Between March and October last year, it redeployed two Patriot missile batteries and roughly 500 service members from U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) to the Middle East. Those units were used to bolster defenses at American installations in Qatar after Iran fired missiles in June following U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites.

Given this precedent, experts say Patriot systems could be redeployed from the peninsula again to support U.S. operations in the region. However, they consider a shift of the sole Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery stationed in South Korea far less likely.

The Patriot system is capable of intercepting missiles at altitudes of roughly 15 to 40 kilometers. The U.S. Army’s 35th Air Defense Artillery Brigade stationed in South Korea operates eight Patriot batteries, each equipped with eight interceptor missiles.

The exposed interior of a heavily damaged building is pictured near Ferdowsi Square in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday. AFP-Yonhap

Experts also noted that U.S. forces stationed in South Korea are unlikely to be redeployed during the early stages of the conflict.

“If the war becomes prolonged, some air defense assets such as Patriot systems stationed in Korea could be temporarily moved. But large-scale troop redeployment from Korea is unlikely, because most U.S. Forces Korea units are ground forces specialized for operations on the Korean Peninsula,” said Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

“Of course, there is a possibility that a small number of combat troops could be drawn if necessary, but overall there are not many forces that could be pulled out. Some units are assigned to Korea but are not permanently stationed here, such as rotational brigades, and those units could be sent directly to the Middle East. However, that would likely only happen if the conflict becomes prolonged and a large number of ground forces are required,” Yang added, noting that there is little incentive to redeploy troops from Korea when other forces are stationed closer to the Middle East.

Lee Sang-kyu, head of the nuclear security research division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, also pointed out that any redeployment would likely remain within limits that do not disrupt operational plans for defending the Korean Peninsula.

“Certain forces must remain fixed in order to maintain operational plans for U.S. Forces Korea,” Lee said. “Any adjustments would be made in a way that does not affect the combined defense posture while monitoring North Korean activities.”

Lee added that the United States and Israel currently appear focused on weakening Iran’s air defense network rather than launching ground operations, and that the conflict has not yet reached a stage where large numbers of ground troops are required, making the use of USFK a low-priority option.

“What the United States currently needs are systems capable of intercepting Iranian missiles and penetrating air defense networks,” he said. “In that sense, Patriot batteries could become potential candidates.”

This file photo shows military choppers operating over Camp Humphreys, a sprawling U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 22, 2022. Newsis

Defense ministry spokesperson Chung Binna reiterated during a briefing Tuesday that USFK’s primary mission remains unchanged.

“The mission of U.S. Forces Korea is to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region by maintaining a firm combined defense posture with the South Korean military,” she said, adding that the allies are maintaining close consultations while declining to provide further details.

The question of whether U.S. forces in Korea might be tapped for operations in the Middle East appeared to surface during a phone call on Monday between South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back and Elbridge Colby, the U.S. under secretary of defense for policy, at Washington’s request. The two discussed their assessments of the unfolding situation in the Middle East and exchanged views on the U.S. military campaign against Iran, underscoring the strains the conflict is placing on allied planning and coordination.

Observers speculate that Colby’s request may have been related to potential rotational deployments of U.S. assets. However, the defense ministry declined to disclose details of the conversation.

“It is difficult to reveal the contents of the call between Minister Ahn and Under Secretary Colby,” Chung said.