Significant civilian casualties inevitable in case of Hamas-like NK assault: experts

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from Ashkelon, in southern Israel, Oct. 20. Experts said on Wednesday that North Korea may imitate Hamas' attack on Israel, to which South Korean civilians will remain vulnerable. Reuters-Yonhap

Speaking to lawmakers at Monday’s National Assembly audit of government affairs, Gen. Park Jeong-hwan, South Korea’s Army chief of staff, said he will redouble efforts to expedite the development and deployment of a new air defense system against North Korea’s possible imitation of Hamas’ attack on Israel.

Having seen how thousands of rockets fired by the Palestinian militant group overwhelmed Israel’s missile interception system on Oct. 7, Park also said the low altitude missile defense-II (LAMD-II) system, a project expected to be completed in seven years, would protect some of the densely populated areas of South Korea.

However, according to two former Army major generals, the new system is primarily designed to protect key military facilities and a significant number of civilian casualties is inevitable under such a scenario ― an inconvenient truth Park did not talk much about at the National Assembly.

“If North Korea carries out such an attack with its long-range artillery pieces, it is impossible to intercept them all (with the new system),” Bang Jong-goan, a researcher at Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, a think tank, said during a forum in Seoul. “If that occurs, the objective should be to destroy the weapons in the shortest time possible … But for a couple dozen minutes or so, there would be damage.”

That damage is expected to be far greater than what was seen in Israel, where more than 1,400 people were killed as a result of the Hamas attack. North Korea is believed to be able to fire some 16,000 shells per hour from around 1,000 artillery pieces along the inter-Korean border in the early stages of a war. Of them, North Korea is estimated to operate some 340 long-range artillery pieces, which directly target the greater Seoul area, home to about half of the South’s 51.5 million population.

To minimize possible casualties from such an assault, Bang said what the military should focus on is developing a strategy and capabilities to shorten the time to recognize an attack and prepare for a counteroffensive.

However, that does not mean that South Korea won’t need such an advanced anti-missile system, said Kim Kyu-yeon, director at Korea Association of Defense Industry Studies, a think tank.

“Both defense and counterattack means should be expanded, as the enemies would always attack the most vulnerable parts of their targets,” Kim added. “Some say Israel’s Iron Dome (its air defense system) failed. But it didn’t. It just faced the situation beyond its capability.”

Both experts said South Korea’s military should take lessons from Israel’s intelligence failure, saying the 2018 inter-Korean military accord significantly restricts the military’s surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities near the border area and that it needs to be suspended.

The agreement, inked by the previous Moon Jae-in administration on Sept. 9 that year amid a thaw in cross-border relations, includes setting up no-fly zones near the border.

The agreement may decrease the risk of accidental clashes, but it limits South Korea’s ability and right to conduct drills necessary to prepare for North Korea’s sudden attack, said Bang. “Therefore, it (its suspension) needs to be considered,” he added.

North Korea has virtually nullified the pact by sending its drones into South Korea’s airspace among many other violations. “I don’t know whether it would be proper for us to continue to maintain the agreement when the other party doesn’t,” Kim said.

“At a time when the U.S. (South Korea’s key ally) is now being forced to handle two wars at the same time, another security threat could emerge in East Asia as well … We all should ask ourselves whether we are prepared for one,” he added.