Unity or illusion? Korea’s history of last-minute electoral alliances
Presidential candidate banners hang along a road in Seongbuk District, Seoul, Thursday. From top, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party, and Kwon Young-kook of the Democratic Labor Party. Yonhap
As calls for a unified opposition grow louder in Korea’s presidential race, one key question remains: does merging rival candidates truly lead to electoral success?
From the collapse of merger talks between Kim Moon-soo — a former labor minister and current People Power Party (PPP) presidential nominee — and former acting President Han Duck-soo, a veteran diplomat and economic policymaker, to the uncompromising stance of former PPP party leader and current Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok, Korea’s electoral history is filled with examples of candidate unifications that have either reshaped — or failed to influence — election outcomes.
With just a week remaining until the June 3 vote, the political calculus behind these high-stakes alliances is once again in the spotlight. In fact, efforts to merge opposition candidates have been a recurring feature of Korean presidential elections.
Since the landmark 1997 race, when Kim Dae-jung of the National Congress for New Politics and Kim Jong-pil of the United Liberal Democrats formed the DJP coalition, unification strategies have been a critical part of campaign playbooks. The DJP deal, which combined Kim Dae-jung’s liberal base with Kim Jong-pil’s conservative-leaning support, helped Kim secure a narrow victory over Lee Hoi-chang of the New Korea Party. The DJP model is often cited as a textbook case of a successful political merger in Korea.
In 2002, a last-minute agreement between Roh Moo-hyun of the Millennium Democratic Party and Chung Mong-joon of National Alliance 21 marked a pivotal moment in Korean electoral politics. The deal was groundbreaking in its use of public opinion polls to determine the unified candidate — a first in the nation's presidential history. Although Chung dramatically withdrew his support on the eve of the election, Roh's campaign capitalized on a wave of public sympathy, consolidating progressive voters and narrowly defeating Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party. The episode, however, underscored the fragility of such alliances and cast doubt on whether poll-based mergers could truly deliver lasting unity.
Kim Dae-jung, right, then-president of the National Congress for New Politics, and Kim Jong-pil, then-president of the United Liberal Democrats, speak during an event in Seoul, Oct. 27, 1997. Korea Times file
Not all unification attempts have succeeded.
The presidential race in 2012 saw Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Unity Party and independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo attempt a last-minute alliance, but their efforts were marred by disputes over polling methods, public squabbles and a rushed timeline. Ahn’s abrupt withdrawal just days before the election was meant to boost Moon’s chances, but the process left supporters divided and failed to overcome the opposition’s momentum. Moon ultimately lost to Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party by 3.5 percentage points, with many analysts pointing to the disjointed opposition as a key factor in the defeat.
The election in 2022 presented a more contested case.
Yoon Suk Yeol of the PPP and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party struck a last-minute deal days before the vote, helping Yoon narrowly edge past Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea. Yet some argue the merger’s impact was limited, as many voters had already cast ballots during early voting. The deal may have even triggered a backlash, mobilizing Lee’s supporters in key regions. Meanwhile, Lee also secured an alliance with Kim Dong-yeon of the New Wave Party, showing that both major camps viewed unification as a necessary, albeit imperfect, strategy in a tight race.
The collapse of unification talks between Kim Moon-soo of the PPP and Han Duck-soo, an independent candidate, ahead of this year's snap presidential elections adds another cautionary tale. Rushed negotiations, legal challenges and accusations of backroom maneuvering fractured the conservative camp and left it weakened.
Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party has firmly rejected calls for unification, describing the pressure to merge as undemocratic and a betrayal of his campaign’s core principles.
Roh Moo-hyun, right, then-presidential candidate of the Millennium Democratic Party, and Chung Mong-joon of National Alliance 21, share a celebratory toast with soju glasses at a street stall in Yeouido, in this Nov. 20, 2002 photo. Korea Times file
“I made it clear from the start that I intend to see this race through to the end,” he said. Lee has also openly criticized what he calls the political establishment’s culture of coercion, likening it to “a system where those in power dictate the outcome and punish dissent.” He argues that elections should be fought over policies and visions for the country, not last-minute political deals.
Lee’s position has resonated with younger voters, who see his stance as a rejection of backroom politics and a challenge to the dominance of traditional party machines.
Ultimately, Korea’s experience shows that unification is no guarantee of success. When mergers have succeeded, it has been due to complementary voter bases, a clear unifying message and mutual trust. Without these elements, unification efforts often result in disappointment, internal conflict and sometimes even a strengthened opposition.
As Korea approaches another pivotal election, the debate over candidate mergers has returned to the forefront. Whether Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok will ultimately join forces remains uncertain. One thing is clear: voters — not party strategists — will have the final say on whether this latest push for unity proves to be a bold strategy or just another chapter in Korea’s long and complex political saga.
Moon Jae-in, left, then-candidate of the Democratic United Party, and then-independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo shake hands after wrapping up discussions to field a single candidate at Baekbeom Memorial Hall in Hyochang-dong, Seoul, Nov. 22, 2012. Joint Press Corps.