Young voters, Busan may decide election outcome

Campaign banners of Democratic Party of Korea candidate Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo are displayed along Marine City Road in Busan's Haeundae District, May 12. Yonhap

With Korea's June 3 presidential election just two weeks away, the path to victory increasingly hinges on the voting trends of two pivotal voting blocs: young adults and residents of the southeastern provinces, which include important urban areas such as Busan and Ulsan.

The sharpened focus on these groups underscores the shifting dynamics of the election, revealing a recognition that traditional strongholds and past voting patterns may not guarantee victory. This strategic pivot highlights the growing importance of engaging younger voters and winning over a potentially volatile southeastern electorate.

Recent polls indicate that Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) candidate Lee Jae-myung holds a commanding national lead. A Realmeter poll of 1,509 adults, conducted from Wednesday to Friday and commissioned by Energy Economic News, found that Lee had 50.2 percent support, followed by People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo with 35.6 percent and Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok at 8.6 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and was conducted via mobile phone interviews.

In Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province — areas where conservative parties traditionally enjoy a commanding lead — the numbers are far more competitive. Gallup Korea polled 1,004 adults from Tuesday to Thursday and found Lee leading Kim by just 2 percentage points — 41 percent to 39 percent — with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

This marks a striking shift from previous elections.

In 2022, then-candidate Yoon Suk Yeol won 58.2 percent of the vote in Busan, while Lee received just 38.1 percent — a gap of more than 20 points. In last year’s legislative elections, the DPK secured only one of the city’s 18 constituencies. Lee’s rise above the 40 percent mark in the region has fueled speculation that the conservative stronghold may be weakening.

In Ulsan, considered one of the most closely contested cities in the region, the two major candidates are locked in a statistical tie. The city is notable for its split voting record: in 2022, Lee narrowly defeated Yoon in one district by just 95 votes — one of the slimmest margins in the country. While voters in the southeast remain deeply divided, current polling suggests the electorate may be more fluid than in previous elections.

In this combination image, Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, left, campaigns on a street in Daegu, Tuesday, People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo, center, campaigns at Sinjeong Market in Ulsan's Nam District, and Reform Party presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok, right, campaigns at Kyungpook National University in Daegu. Yonhap

Voters in their 20s and 30s — totaling 12.49 million nationwide — are also seen as a decisive force. All three major candidates have crafted pledges aimed at winning over younger voters. Lee’s youth platform centers on expanding access to opportunities and strengthening the social safety net, with proposals such as government-matched savings accounts, expanded public housing, monthly rent subsidies and job-related incentives like military service credit in public-sector hiring.

Kim has campaigned on building what he calls "a nation that grows with its youth and opens doors to the future," proposing tax incentives for companies hiring young people and the revival of large-scale corporate recruitment. His housing pledge includes a program offering up to nine years of rent assistance — three years tied to marriage and the births of a first and second child — and supplying 100,000 homes annually to eligible recipients.

Despite these efforts, many young voters remain undecided. Both major candidates have stepped up their outreach — Kim through street rallies and policy forums, and Lee through meetings and discussions with students and first-time voters — but skepticism remains over whether these promises will lead to meaningful change.

Although Lee holds a nationwide edge, analysts caution that the race remains highly fluid.

The potential influence of so-called “shy conservatives” — voters reluctant to disclose their preferences in surveys — and late shifts in voter sentiment could still determine the outcome.

Early voting is on May 29 and 30. With the outcome hinging on two of the most dynamic and unpredictable constituencies, the final stretch of the campaign is likely to be decisive.

Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.