Lee Jae-myung defies legal setback, solidifies lead with 50% support in latest polls

Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung takes a photo with supporters at a cafe in Jeonju, North Jeolla Province, Wednesday. He had just concluded a meeting to promote the K-content industry as part of his campaign. Yonhap

Despite a Supreme Court decision overturning his acquittal on election law violation charges, Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung has not only weathered the potential legal blow but appears to be gaining momentum.

Recent polls show Lee’s approval ratings climbing past the 50 percent mark, solidifying his position as the front-runner in the June 3 presidential election.

Gallup Korea surveyed 1,006 adults nationwide over two days starting Saturday for the JoongAng Ilbo. In a three-way race, Lee received 49 percent support, ahead of Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (PPP) who garnered 33 percent, and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party who received 9 percent. In a separate scenario where independent candidate Han Duck-soo replaced Kim, Lee again secured 49 percent, while Han received 36 percent and Lee Jun-seok 6 percent. The survey, conducted through telephone interviews, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 94 percent confidence level, according to Gallup Korea.

Korea Research surveyed 1,006 adults nationwide on Sunday for MBC, showing Lee with 55 percent support in a three-way race against Kim with 19 percent and Lee Jun-seok with 6 percent. In a similar scenario, with Han replacing Kim, Lee secured 56 percent, followed by Han at 23 percent and Lee Jun-seok at 7 percent.

This consistency across polling agencies suggests that the Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday has not significantly shaken public confidence in the DPK candidate. Analysts attribute this resilience to unwavering support among centrist voters. A meta-analysis conducted by the Hankyoreh and STI, which aggregated 95 national surveys since December last year, found that Lee’s support stood at 50 percent in a three-way race as of Tuesday, marking a three-point rise from the previous week. In the same analysis, more than half of centrist respondents said they would vote for Lee, regardless of the conservative candidate.

Lee’s team has responded with confidence, focusing on stability, direct voter engagement and policy-driven engagement. As part of his second outreach tour, Lee visited traditional markets and rural areas in North Jeolla Province and the Chungcheong provinces, greeting residents and framing the election as a fight against the old guard and judicial injustice. He drew parallels to the politically charged trials of Cho Bong-am and former President Kim Dae-jung to contextualize his own legal situation.

Kim Moon-soo, right, People Power Party presidential candidate, and Han Duck-soo, independent preliminary presidential candidate, attend a celebration ceremony for Buddha's Birthday at Jogye Temple in Jongno District, Seoul, Monday. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

“The people have always risen to defend democracy when power strays,” Lee said during a speech in Okcheon, North Chungcheong Province. “This time, too, we will prevail.”

Alongside his grassroots outreach, Lee has unveiled a series of youth-oriented policies designed to broaden his appeal among voters in their 20s and 30s. These include proposals to create tax-incentivized savings accounts, lower cryptocurrency transaction fees, expand job-seeking subsidies and ensure that military service is credited fairly in pension and pay scales. He also vowed to broaden eligibility for state-funded student loan support and ease housing costs for young renters.

Lee also stepped into the medical education controversy, urging protesting medical students to return to school. In a Facebook post on Tuesday, he wrote, “Let me shoulder the political burden. You return to your education.” He criticized the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s unilateral push to expand medical school quotas as the root of the crisis, warning that “our health care system cannot move forward without consensus and reform.”

While Lee consolidates support, the PPP continues to face internal discord. The PPP is struggling to present a unified front amid friction over whether its nominee, former Labor Minister Kim, should step aside for Han, an independent candidate. Realmeter surveyed 1,007 adults for YTN from May 1 to 2 and found that 59 percent of PPP supporters believed Han should be the unified conservative candidate, while 29 percent preferred Kim. Among all respondents, Han received 29 percent support, while Kim garnered 19 percent.

Even in hypothetical two-way matchups, Lee maintained a strong lead.

A YTN-Embrain Public poll showed Lee defeating Kim by 50 percent to 34 percent and Han by 49 percent to 38 percent.

DPK strategist Rep. Cheon Jun-ho stated during a campaign strategy meeting at the party’s Yeouido headquarters on Tuesday that public support for Lee and the party remained stable following the conclusion of the PPP’s runoff primary on Saturday.

With candidate registration closing on Sunday and official campaigning set to begin shortly afterward, Lee’s commanding lead has turned what was expected to be a tightly contested race into one defined by his dominance. However, with more than four weeks until the election, undecided voters and further legal or political developments could still alter the outcome.

Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.