Choi scandal threatens security, diplomacy

Choi Soon-sil, President Park Geun-hye’s confidante, is taken to the Seoul Detention Center after being questioned over the influence-peddling and corruption scandal at the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office in southern Seoul on Nov. 5. / Yonhap

By Rachel Lee

An unprecedented political scandal over President Park Geun-hye’s confidant Choi Soon-sil will have serious repercussions for diplomatic and security issues, especially with the Korean Peninsula facing growing tensions over Pyongyang’s nuclear testing, experts warn.

Choi, 60, daughter of a religious cult leader, is accused of abusing her close ties with old friend Park by interfering in security and economic policies — from speechwriting to nominating officials — despite holding no official position or security clearance.

Observers have called for authorities to keep a close eye on every possible scenario, pointing out possible further North Korean provocations to make the most of the chaotic situation in the South.

“There is uncertainty in the country’s diplomatic and security situation stemming from the instability of the President,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

“The policy-making process should become the center of the National Security Council. And sensitive policies such as the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery and the execution of the comfort women agreement should be put off for now.”

Yang also said talks about a Korea-Japan General Security of Military Information Agreement should also stop in the unstable situation.

He said the country should watch out closely for what North Korean might do.

“It is highly possible that Pyongyang will launch a Musudan missile again in this crisis and also counter the upcoming United Nations Security Council’s resolution against North Korea.”

Kim Yeol-su, an international politics professor at Sungshin Women’s University, said the country’s diplomatic status had undoubtedly weakened, which would have unfavorable consequences for Seoul in any negotiations with other nations, including the upcoming trilateral Japan, China and South Korea summit.

“However, such a chaotic situation does not mean the President should stay quiet and do nothing,” Kim said. “Park should attend the summit as planned and make more active efforts to help finalize the U.N. resolution to at least minimize the grave national loss.”

Regarding further possible Pyongyang provocations, Kim said the North may choose to focus on the U.S. because of the presidential election there on Tuesday.

“The North may fire a Musudan missile ahead of the election with the aim of obtaining what it wants from the new president.”

He said that the North could also provoke the South, but because this could “help” Seoul, any provocation is not likely to be on a large large-scale like the deadly shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010.

Choi Chang-ryul, a professor of political science at Yongin University, said the biggest problem in South Korea is the absence of a government “control tower,” which means the country lacked diplomatic and security directions.

“President Park has lost authority as a head of state,” Choi said. “Amid tens of thousands of citizens calling for Park to resign, it seems she will find it very hard to earn the trust of other heads of state as well.”

President Park Geun-hye bows in apology for the corruption scandal involving her and her confidante Choi Soon-sil while delivering a nationally televised address at Cheong Wa Dae, Nov. 4 — her second apology in 10 days for the scandal. / Yonhap

Choi said Pyongyang is unlikely to make any aggressive move because Park has been making no provocative remarks.

For now, the focus should not be on the North, but on calming angry citizens and making sure every ministry and official make utmost efforts to resolve the crisis as soon as possible.

Some experts say the only way to solve the crisis is for the President to step down and let the country select the new leadership.

Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University, said: “President Park’s leadership was already lacking before the scandal. Now she has absolutely no power at all, which means it is impossible to communicate with other heads of state regarding sensitive issues like the THAAD deployment with China.”

In this urgent situation, the “de-facto” absence of the country’s leader should be minimized — a new leader should come in and work with ministerial-level officials to work through the necessary, sensitive issues with other nations, he said.

The professor said Park’s lack of leadership is also linked with the delay of bringing about the U.N. resolution for North Korea’s nuclear threats, enabled by China.

“It is only the President who can deal with getting support from the international community for the country and since Park cannot do anything now, the North Korean threats have become even more extreme.”

Park last week apologized for the scandal for the second time in 10 days amid growing public calls for her to step down. Park said she would accept a prosecution investigation into the Choi scandal, and even face an investigation by an independent counsel, if necessary.

A Gallup Korea poll released last week showed Park’s approval rating plummeted to a record low of 5 percent, the lowest since she took office in February 2013 — and the lowest for any president since the republic was founded in 1948.

A Realmeter survey conducted during the same period as the Gallup poll showed that 70.4 percent of respondents believe the prosecution should examine Park.

She may become the first sitting head of state in modern Korean history to face a prosecution investigation.