By Jun Ji-hye
President Park Geun-hye has vowed to give a firm response to North Korea’s fifth nuclear test, but she appears to have few options to use against the isolated, unpredictable state, analysts said Monday.
The Park government has already taken almost all available measures it has to pressure the North in the wake of Pyongyang’s previous nuclear test in January and launch of a long-range rocket the following month. The measures included resuming anti-North Korea propaganda broadcasts via loudspeakers along the border, shutting down the joint industrial park in the North’s border city of Gaeseong, and asking people to refrain from visiting North Korean restaurants overseas.
In July, the government also announced its decision to allow the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here by the end of next year as a means to more effectively deter evolving threats from the North’s nuclear and missile programs.
But the isolated state pushed ahead with a fifth nuclear test, Friday, claiming to have successfully detonated a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can be placed on a ballistic missile.
“The government now seems to have no more options in deterring the North except for military action,” said Koh You-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. “The government has already used everything involving the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) and THAAD. Plus, exchanges between South and North Korea have been blocked since the Lee Myung-bak administration imposed the May 24 Measures in 2010.”
The May 24 Measures that severed almost all economic ties with the North were imposed in retaliation for the North’s torpedoing of the South’s warship Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors, in 2010.
Experts noted that Park is now apparently resorting to using strong words such as “Kim Jong-un’s mental state is unstable,” as she was unable to find meaningful measures to counter the North’s latest provocation.
Experts say that the remaining measures the government can take are persuading China and Russia to join forces to punish the North, but this has also been called into questions following the announcement of the THAAD deployment.
China is strongly opposed to THAAD out of concerns that its radar could spy on the country’s military activities and missile capabilities. Russia is also expressing its concerns about THAAD’s possible impact on regional stability.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said that the GIC was the last bastion of inter-Korean relations, but following its shutdown, it became much harder for the government to counter the North’s provocations.
He said the government might be able to add more North Koreans to the list of individuals on a U.N. sanctions blacklist in conjunction with international cooperation, but this is seen as an ineffective means to eventually resolve the mounting tension.
“Of course, punishment is necessary as the North violated U.N. resolutions, but at the same time the government needs to bring stability to the Korean Peninsula,” he said. “At this stage, attempts to push for inter-Korean dialogue and punish the North need to run in parallel, but the government should gradually reduce its measures to pressure the North while expanding communication channels.”
Prof. Yang also supported the latest demand made by Rep. Park Jie-won, the interim leader of the minor opposition People’s Party, that President Park meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to break the deadlock in inter-Korean relations.
“When tension reaches its peak like it is now, the leaders of the two Koreas are the only figures who can resolve the situation,” he said.
On Sept. 7, Rep. Park said in a speech at the National Assembly that one of the most important things that the President should do during her remaining year-and-a-half in office is to push for an inter-Korean summit.
He said pushing for this, even if the attempt fails, will help Park take the diplomatic initiative and ease military tension on the peninsula.