By Yi Whan-woo
With the ruling Saenuri Party set to elect its new chairman in today’s caucus, the voting results are expected to affect its potential candidates for the 2017 presidential race.
Currently, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former Chairman Rep. Kim Moo-sung are regarded as presidential hopefuls from the ruling party.
According to political analysts, Ban’s run for the presidency will gain steam if Rep. Lee Jung-hyun gets elected, while Rep. Joo Ho-young’s win would give a boost to Kim’s presidential bid. Reps. Lee Ju-young and Han Sun-kyo are also participating in the four-way leadership race.
Lee Jung-hyun is a loyalist to President Park Geun-hye, who is believed to be backing Ban as the country’s next president.
The lawmaker represents Suncheon, South Jeolla Province, a stronghold of the opposition. Lee’s election is expected to draw support from there for Ban, who is mainly popular in the Chungcheong region, Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province.
“Lee has guaranteed that if he becomes chairman, he will draw 20 percent of support from voters from North and South Jeolla provinces in the presidential election and his pledge is appealing to party members,” said a member of the Park loyalist faction.
Joo represents minor factional members who oppose the mainstream pro-Park faction. If he is elected, Joo is likely to help the party’s former chairman who had underscored an affiliation among non-Park members.
“The former chairman seems to have used all available forces to help Joo win the election,” Kim’s aide said.
As for Rep. Lee Ju-young, he does not belong to any factions although he served as maritime minister for the Park government in 2014, so neither Ban nor Kim is likely to gain an edge should he lead the party.
In addition to Joo, Han is also among the minor factional members. He has a very slim chance of winning after he refused to merge the non-Park candidates, according to experts.
On Friday, Joo joined forces with Rep. Choung Byoung-gug, another minor factional member, in a bid to prevent the pro-Park faction from securing the party leadership, with Lee Jung-hyun emerging as the favorite.
Lee Jung-hyun received 23.8 percent support against Lee Ju-young’s 18.6 percent, Choung’s 17 percent’ Joo’s 12.8 percent and Han’s 10.6 percent in a recent survey conducted by Realmeter from Aug. 2 to 3.
“We believe it will be a three-way race among Lee Ju-young, Lee Jung-hyun and Joo, with the latter two likely to underscore how friendly or unfriendly they are with the President,” a political analyst said.