Attention to shift to 2017 presidential race

By Jun Ji-hye

Ban Ki-moon

Kim Moo-sung

Moon Jae-in

Ahn Cheol-soo

Kim Chong-in

Yoo Seong-min

The general election is now over, and much of the attention will now shift to the presidential race of 2017.

There has already been talk about a number of potential presidential candidates; though it may be too early _ and risky _ to predict who will join the race to become the country’s next president.

However, if the general election is a prelude to the presidential poll, the results will certainly affect the positions of hopefuls.

Indeed, the drama of deals and power struggles for next year’s election has already begun. The changing political landscape after the general election will present the hopefuls with opportunities and obstacles.

After the election, rumors regarding a bid by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon are also expected to be revived, given that his U.N. tenure ends this year.

Despite Ban’s apparent efforts to downplay such speculation, parties are expected to move in earnest to recruit the U.N. chief who consistently ranks first in various opinion polls about who is the most qualified for the presidency.

In the governing camp, Saenuri Party Chairman Rep. Kim Moo-sung, who secured a seat in Yeongdo, Busan; and Yoo Seong-min, who was elected as an independent in Daegu after leaving the ruling party, have been mentioned as potential candidates.

Kim announced, March 30, that he will step down from the chairmanship soon after the general election, regardless of the party’s results. Analysts said this announcement meant he will start making preparations to become a presidential candidate from then.

Kim also indicated his willingness to be a candidate in the 2017 presidential race when he told party members in his constituency in December that the April election is his “final” bid for a parliamentary seat. The remark was construed as meaning that the one final challenge left in his political career is to run for the presidency.

However, some analysts forecast Kim to be driven into a corner at least for a while after the governing party failed to secure a majority in the 300-seat parliament.

Political commentator Kim Sung-wook noted, “Kim will face calls to take responsibility for this as chairman of the party although the failure to secure a majority of seats was apparently caused by deepening intra-party disputes between loyalists to President Park Geun-hye and those who do not support her.”

Regarding the U.N. chief, Kim earlier said that if Ban was willing to join the Saenuri Party, he would be welcome.

A potential presidential bid by Yoo, who won in a landslide as an independent in Daegu, the ruling party’s traditional stronghold, would depend on whether he will be able to return to the governing party along with his supporters.

Yoo quit the ruling party March 23 after failing to be nominated for the election due to his conflict with President Park’s loyalists who dominated the nominations committee.

During his campaign, he has consistently told voters, “I will definitely win the election and return to the party,” apparently seeking to expand his influence.

During his fight with the pro-Park faction, Yoo left a deep impression on the public with his realistic statements such as “welfare without tax increases is fiction,” directly contradicting President Park’s pledge of “welfare without tax hikes.”

Opposition camp

Those who have been mentioned as potential presidential candidates in the opposition bloc include Moon Jae-in, former chairman of the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK); MPK interim leader Kim Chong-in; and Ahn Cheol-soo, co-chairman of the minor opposition People’s Party.

Moon did not run in Wednesday’s election following a pledge he made last year when he was elected party chairman. But he has been still showing his influence _ he ranked first with 26.7 percent support in the latest opinion poll on presidential candidates, conducted by local pollster Research View a day before the general election.

Analysts noted, however, that the MPK’s failure to garner overwhelming support in the liberal party’s traditional stronghold of North and South Jeolla provinces and Gwangju (known colloquially as Honam) would affect Moon’s future.

Moon had earlier told voters in the region during stumping, “If Honam residents withdraw their support for the MPK, I intend to quit politics and will not run in the presidential race.”

On polling day, Moon wrote on his Twitter account: “Man proposes and god disposes.”

For his part, MPK interim leader Kim indicated on March 16 that he has ambitions for the presidency, saying “I do not want to be a kingmaker.”

Political analyst Hwang Jang-soo said, “By placing himself in the No. 2 slot on the list of proportional representation candidates, making him a 100 percent shoe-in, Kim expanded his leadership role until next year’s presidential election.”

But observers say it still remains to be seen whether Kim will be selected as a potential presidential candidate, noting that the factional dispute within the MPK between those who follow the legacy of the late President Roh Moo-hyun and others has not been resolved.

Moon is considered a leader of the pro-Roh faction _ he served as chief of staff under the Roh administration. Kim represents a new face of the party.

Regarding Ahn, who won a seat in Nowon, Seoul, observers noted that the general election was a success for him as his People’s Party managed to secure more than 20 seats in the election, which will give it the status of a negotiating body in the National Assembly. They say this will be helpful for a presidential bid as well.

For a party to be a negotiating body, it is required to have at least 20 lawmakers. It then receives the right to participate in negotiations with the ruling and main opposition parties.

With this status, Ahn will be able to lead a three-party system in the Assembly for a while, strengthening his position as an alternative to existing politicians, analysts said.

Follow Jun Ji-hye on Twitter @TheKopJihye