By Yi Whan-woo
The ruling Saenuri Party is not expected to win more than a majority in the 300-seat unicameral National Assembly in the April 13 general election, political analysts said, Friday.
They said the ruling party is failing to unify conservative voters in the aftermath of a nasty factional feud inside the party over candidate nominations.
Speculation is growing that there will be a split of seats among conservative candidates ― Saenuri Party members who are mainly loyalists to President Park Geun-hye, and independents who bolted from the party after being left out of the nominations.
“I’d say the Saenuri Party will win about 140 seats in the April polls,” said Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University. “It’s apparent that the party is still hostile towards its former members who are running as independents, thus encouraging conservative voters to turn their backs on the party.”
Shin estimated that the approval rating for the Saenuri Party is about 30 to 35 percent, down from the 50 percent range it enjoyed in the 2012 general election when it won 152 seats.
Political commentator Hwang Tae-soon speculated that the Saenuri Party will acquire 145 seats, saying “Any analysis that it will take up to 180 seats is totally wrong.”
Lee Joon-han, a professor of political science at Incheon University, agreed by saying, “The Saenuri Party will win more than 150 National Assembly seats only if it convinces its former members to rejoin the party again after their departure.”
Lee added that such a scenario is unlikely, citing that Rep. Choi Kyung-hwan, a senior member of the party’s campaign staff, ruled out the possibility of independent candidates returning to the party under any circumstances, Friday.
The analysts said Cheong Wa Dae and the Saenuri Party were not exaggerating their concerns over the party’s possible failure in the April election.
The ruling party previously sought to maintain its 157 seats before a string of members departed in the middle of the nomination fiasco.
On Thursday, Cheong Wa Dae officials said they were skeptical about such a scenario, adding “the party failed to win support from the public.”
On Wednesday, the Saenuri Party’s senior campaign officials and its 11 candidates in Daegu took to the streets, got on their knees and begged for votes while apologizing for the factional strife.
A string of opinion polls show that several Saenuri Party candidates lag behind independents and contenders from the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK) in Daegu, the President’s stronghold.
They include Lee In-sun, a pro-Park member who is trailing behind independent lawmaker Joo Ho-young in Suseong B. Joo, a former Saenuri party member, led Lee 38.9 percent to 25.9 percent in a survey conducted from March 30 to 31.
The Saenuri Party also did not field a candidate in one of Daegu’s 12 election districts, Dong B, in a bid to not provoke voters.
Rep. Yoo Seong-min, the party’s former floor leader who is estranged from Park, is running as an independent candidate in Dong B.
The Saenuri Party speculated last week that the races in 42 of the 49 constituencies in Seoul are “too close to call.”
Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province combined make up the Seoul metropolitan area, the nation’s most populous region with a number of swing voters.