Gaeseong shutdown closes door for breakthrough

THAAD is more of protection for US than South Korea

By Kim Jae-kyoung

Tony Michell

South Korea’s closure of a joint industrial complex in North Korea and discuss the U.S. deployment of the terminal high altitude area defense (THAAD) system will do more harm than good to resolving the nuclear issue, according to a Korean Peninsula expert.

“I regard the shutdown as shortsighted and disastrous for the long-term outlook for the peninsula, closing the one door which could lead from the mess we are in today to a long-term, prosperous future,” Tony Michell, managing director of Euro-Asian Business Consultancy (EABC), said.

He said the lack of a realistic exit plan on the side of South Korea makes the country seem extremely shortsighted and that Seoul’s decision is based on an incorrect analysis of the North and its motivations.

The head of the British firm that provides consulting on foreign investment in South and North Korea also said neither the Gaesong shutdown nor the deployment of THAAD will help solve the problem, which is to get the North to talk and find a way out of the impasse.

“I understand THAAD technology is more of a protection for the U.S. than for South Korea,” the longtime British business consultant in Korea said. “It also marks a decoupling from China, and therefore a step back from a negotiated future.

“The closure of Gaesong is tragic because it closes the one gateway into a promising shared future. Even if it later reopened, what private business can risk becoming a hostage anytime there is hostility between the two sides?”

Michell, who is also president of Korea Associates Business Consulting (KABC), said Seoul needs to understand the multiple implications of China’s ambivalent stance toward North Korea’s nuclear issue.

“Since the pivot to Asia, China’s interests and those of the U.S. diverge absolutely on a military level, and relatively at a diplomatic level,” he said. “South Korea becomes a pawn in this grand scheme.

“Perhaps it would be easier for China and the U.S. to evolve an agreed agenda into which the future of the peninsula becomes more autonomous.”

Michell, who has been based in Seoul for nearly 30 years, observing and analyzing issues about South and North Korea, is against the idea of Seoul developing nuclear weapons for self-defense as recently floated by some lawmakers.

He said the only, and best, way to alleviate tension on the peninsula is to come back to the negotiating table.

“The task of the South is to get back into bilateral dialogue with the North, whether through six-party means or by themselves, and develop a common vision of the future of the peninsula,” he said.

“Currently, both sides pursue their own visions without dialogue, which led us to this impasse. In a shared vision, the nuclear issue automatically becomes a sub-component of the problem which can be solved.”

Michell previously worked for the Economic Planning Board in Seoul and taught at the KDI School of Policy and Management.