By Kim Hyo-jin
North Korea appears to be seeking dialogue with South Korea to make a diplomatic breakthroughs in its stalled relations with other regional powers -- especially China, analysts said Sunday.
Despite goodwill gestures from the North, analysts question the true intensions of the repressive state, saying the change in attitude is tactical.
“China-North Korea relations have cooled since the North’s third nuclear test in early 2013. Pyongyang can’t afford to play games with China because its economic difficulties are reaching a serious level,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute.
North Korea has accepted the South’s offer to hold working-level Red Cross talks early next month to discuss the issue of holding reunions for families separated by the Korean War.
It appears that Pyongyang is changing its attitude toward Seoul, following the agreement hammered out last week through high-level talks.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said Friday that the agreement should lead to a fruitful outcome, calling it a “crucial landmark occasion.”
Cheong said he believes that the isolated regime’s conciliatory move to Seoul is in line with its need to improve relations with China, Pyongyang’s main ally.
“Defusing tensions on the Korean Peninsula has been Beijing’s demand to Pyongyang for the past few months,” he said. “When the North’s top official Choe Ryong-hae is likely to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, having better relations with the South will improve the chances of the North thawing its icy relations with China.”
Choe Ryong-hae, who is regarded as third-in-command behind Kim, will visit China on Sept. 3 to attend events marking the end of World War II, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Ming said Tuesday, a few hours after the inter-Korean deal was reached.
Koh Yoo-hwan, a North Korean studies professor at Dongguk University echoed a similar view.
“Pyongyang is strategically increasing the pace in relations with Seoul as a move to reach further toward the United States, as well as China,” he said.
North Korea is also eyeing bilateral talks with the U.S. in the climate of improved relations between the two Koreas, he noted, citing Seoul’s top nuclear envoy Hwang Joon-kook’s comment on possible talks about the nuclear issue.
“As the six-party talks, used as a tool to negotiate with the U.S. by the North, have stalled since 2008, Pyongyang needed to approach Seoul as a way to break away from diplomatic isolation,” he said.
North Korea experts speculate that the inter-Korean thaw will continue for a while.
“What draws attention is that the North Korean leader is showing a strong will toward improving relations with the South,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
“Pyongyang is expected to take advantage of the current mood so it can create a positive atmosphere to draw foreign investment into the country. The resumption of the tour to Mount Geumgang should also be kept in mind,” he said.
Koh agreed, saying, “Unless unexpected incidents such as South Korean activists sending propaganda leaflets over the North Korean border take place, the North will stay away from escalating tensions with the South for a while.”