NPAD leader Moon is biggest loser in by-elections

Scandal fails to swing voters against Park, Saenuri Party

By Kang Seung-woo, Kim Hyo-jin

A 4-0 by-election drubbing is expected to weaken New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) Chairman Moon Jae-in, who is the fan favorite presidential candidate, political analysts said Wednesday.

In the by-elections, with four parliamentary seats up for grabs, the ruling Saenuri Party took three ― Gwanak-B in Seoul; Seogu/Ganghwa-B in Incheon; and Jungwon in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province. The Seogu-B district in Gwangju, a stronghold for the NPAD, was also taken by opposition-turned-independent Chun Jung-bae.

“A sense of crisis should emerge within the party because the loss in its home turf of Gwangju means the NPAD is deprived of its identity as an opposition party,” said Prof. Shin Yul at Myongji University.

“The party will likely raise question about Moon’s leadership as next year’s general election looms.”

According to local pollster Realmeter, Moon, who lost narrowly to President Park in the 2012 edition, has been the favored potential candidate for the next presidential election for 16 straight weeks since Jan. 8.

Yoon Hee-woong, a senior researcher at Opinion Live, also said that Moon had his status damaged as a presidential contender.

“Moon will face criticism of his leadership within the party,” he said.

“In addition, those who are also seeking to run in the next presidential election will take advantage of the by-elections defeat to weaken his status.”

Hangil Research director Hong Hyeong-sik expected that the NPAD loss will likely pave the way for Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon to steal the spotlight from Moon as the party's presidential candidate.

“Unlike the Saenuri Party, the NPAD has a competitive replacement with the Seoul mayor,” Hong said.

Others said that following the by-elections defeat, the NPAD may go through an overall reorganization.

“Opposition heavyweight Chun Jung-bae has mobilized forces in making a new party with support of voters in Jeolla Province. As he bagged the victory, the whole liberal camp will inevitably face a potential reshaping,” said Choi Chang-ryul, a political professor at Yongin University.

Prof. Yoo Sung-jin at Ewha Womans University also said, “Voters of the NPAD’s stronghold sent a warning signal that without meaningful reform, the party cannot survive.”

Meanwhile, the resounding victory for the ruling party is expected to help President Park Geun-hye tighten her grip on state affairs and push her reformative measures forward.

With a graft scandal involving the President’s confidants sweeping the nation, the Saenuri Party was cornered by the NPAD claiming the by-elections as a confidence vote for Park.

“The election result means President Park has regained the public’s trust,” said Hong.

Park is attempting to reform the debt-heavy pension system for civil servants and the stiff labor market within this year, but a lack of consensus between the rival parties has produced no tangible results.

“President Park will gain momentum in her reformative drives on the back of the by-elections wins,” said Cho Jin-man, a political science professor at Duksung Women’s University.

“In addition, should the people and the media empower Park’s moves, she will be able to achieve her goals.”

Yoon also expected that the ruling camp will take the initiative at the National Assembly and strongly support Park’s reformative drive.

In addition, he added that the Saenuri Party will be able to have a bigger say in relations between it and Cheong Wa Dae.

“The Saenuri Party won with no help from President Park amid the evolving graft scandal,” he said.

“Through the by-elections, the ruling party will be more independent from the presidential office.”