By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea’s claim that it is capable of building a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to fire at the United States is unreliable and untested, according to a recent U.S. congressional report.
“Although senior North Korean military leaders stated in 2012 their long-range missiles could hit the United States with nuclear weapons, there is no clear evidence that Pyongyang has developed a warhead small enough to fit on an ICBM,” the Congressional Research Service (CRS) said.
The summation is part of its report titled “Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region: Cooperation and Opposition.”
“North Korea has not to date demonstrated a reliable capability to hit targets such as Guam or other U.S. territory with a ballistic missile,” the report continues.
The analysis runs counter to recent comments made by U.S. military officials that they believe the isolated state has the ability to build such a missile.
Adm. William Gortney, commander of U.S. Northern Command, said on April 7, “Our assessment is that they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland.”
In October, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), also said that he believes the repressive state has “the capability to have a miniaturized device at this point, and they have the technology to potentially actually deliver what they say they have.”
Since 2010, the North Korean military has unveiled new ballistic missiles seemingly based on Russian designs. However, a reported mobile ICBM vehicle paraded through Pyongyang has not been flight tested, which has led some analysts to conclude that it is a mock prototype.
The CRS report noted that the North has made slow progress toward developing a reliable long-range ballistic missile.
“The December 2012 launch was the first successful space launch after four consecutive test failures in 1998, 2006, 2009 and April 2012,” it said. It added that its inconsistent progress toward developing a long-range missile calls into question that it could successfully test an ICBM that could deliver a small nuclear payload to the United States by 2015.
The report added that experts remain divided on the potential capabilities of these missile types.
Seoul’s defense ministry has said that it did not believe that the North has completed development because it has yet to test-fire the missile, which is required before operational deployment.
Some critics here have argued that Washington was deliberately creating controversy about the KN-08 ICBM ahead of the visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter to Seoul on April 9 in a bid to deploy the controversial Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean Peninsula.
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