By Jhoo Dong-chan
Mount Baekdu, located on the border between China and North Korea, has recently shown signs that it could erupt, according to a geologist.
Readings from a Russian satellite show that the mountain’s surface temperature has risen significantly since before October 2006. The temperature of Chonji, the 850-meter-deep crater caldera lake on top of Mount Baekdu, has constantly increased by a few degrees since 1999, according to a Chinese volcanic observatory.
Public concern has grown over a possible eruption of the volcanic mountain especially after a series of small earthquakes in the region occurred between 2002 and 2005.
“It would be a catastrophic disaster if Mount Baekdu had a full scale eruption,” Yoon Seong-hyo, a geology professor at Pusan National University told the Korea Times.
“Historical records show that a full-scale eruption of Mount Baekdu took place about 1,100 years ago. It recorded over VEI (Volcanic explosivity index) 7 magnitude.”
The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which is considered to be the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta in Alaska, recorded a VEI of 6, according to Yoon.
Although evacuation was preceded before Mount Pinatubo erupted, 847 people were reportedly killed.
“A full-scale eruption of Mount Baekdu is expected to be 10 times stronger than the Mount Pinatubo eruption,” said Yoon.
Professor Hiroshi Machida of Tokyo Metropolitan University said in a 1992 report that the eruption of Mount Baekdu was actually a major cause of the fall of Korea’s ancient kingdom Balhae, which had expanded sovereignty to the vast Manchuria territory during the 10th century.
“All living creatures within the mountain’s 85-kilometers radius will perish, if it erupts in full scale,” said Yoon. “Pyroclastic flow will be unleashed at speeds of about 100 kilometer per hour in nearby areas.
“It will be another Pompeii.”
Another case that can be parallel to the possible eruption of Mount Baekdu is the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora on the island of Sumbawa in Indonesia, which is classified as a VEI 7 event.
The estimated number of deaths varies depending on sources but the most reliable data from Cambridge University volcanologist Clive Oppenheimer suggests that at least 71,000 people were killed in total.
Yoon said the Mount Tambora eruption “influenced global temperatures” in 1816.
“The 1815 eruption released sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere, causing a global climate anomaly. SO2 blocked the solar radiation, decreasing global summer temperature the following year,” said Yoon.
“Mount Baekdu will have a similar impact not only on Northeast Asia but also on a global level. It is important for both Koreas as well as neighboring countries to monitor the mountain closely.”