By Kang Seung-woo
With no sign of progress in inter-Korean dialogue in the near future, the rocky relationship between the United States and North Korea is inevitably adding to tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Washington infuriated Pyongyang when President Barack Obama predicted the eventual collapse of the North Korean regime in a YouTube interview, released Jan 23.
In response, the North said Saturday it would not negotiate with the U.S. any longer, calling the country the “rabid dogs openly barking” about toppling its system.
In addition, a recent offer for dialogue extended toward the North by the United States fell through.
“The two countries tried to do something regarding the North’s nuclear weapons program through a New York channel, but talks broke down at an early stage,” said Chang Yong-seok, senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. The channel refers to a meeting between North Korea’s United Nations (U.N.) delegation and U.S. officials.
Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea policy, wanted to meet with North Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan, Pyongyang’s former chief nuclear negotiator, in a third country during his visits there last week, but the North insisted on Kim visiting Pyongyang instead.
“The central issue here is the incompatibility of the goals of the two sides,” said U.S. Naval War College Prof. Terence Roehrig.
“North Korea is highly unlikely to give up its nuclear weapons program and insists talks be held without preconditions. In contrast, and correctly so, the United States, South Korea, China, and others will never be willing to recognize and accept Pyongyang as a nuclear weapon state.”
Victor Cha, chief Korea analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, echoed Roehrig.
“It is not surprising that the North rejected an offer for talks. Those who follow this in D.C. knew that the North has been totally uncompromising on denuclearization measures despite all of the public gestures of inter-Korean summits and visits to Moscow,” Cha said.
He added that the North’s strategy in 2015 has not changed, and the “byungjin line” ― the simultaneous pursuit of economic development and nuclear weapons capability ― is largely to take the media’s attention off human rights issues there.
The U.N. has called for North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un to stand trial at the International Criminal Court for state perpetrated abuses of human rights.
Analysts predict that there will be fewer moves to hold meetings between the two nations.
“Talks without preconditions are a good starting point and they may create some opportunities for reducing tension, but given the difficulty of reconciling the disparate goals on denuclearization, negotiators will be hard-pressed to make progress, though some level of dialogue may still be useful,” said Roehrig.
Chang also said, “For the time being, such bilateral efforts are expected to go through a cooling-off period.”
“As for the North, it offered to suspend nuclear tests if the U.S. cancels its annual military exercises with the South and invited Sung Kim to Pyongyang, but then heard of the U.S. comments on the eventual collapse of its regime. It will not be easy to resume dialogue to resolve the nuclear issue.”
The deadlock may have implications for the South, with the North vowing retaliation against the joint military drills between Seoul and Washington.
On Tuesday, the Choson Sinbo, the North’s mouthpiece in Japan, warned that March’s military exercises could lead to a volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula.
However, tensions are not likely to escalate as high as in 2013, when the North threatened to strike the U.S. mainland, as well as Hawaii and Guam and the U.S. responded by displaying its advanced military capabilities such as its nuclear attack submarines, nuclear-capable bombers and stealth fighters such as the F-22.
“Tensions are likely to increase, but I am not convinced it will not necessarily get as bad as it did in spring 2013,” said Roehrig.
He added that North Korea will continue to complain about the exercises and conduct its own drills, but ratcheting up tension may not be in its interest either, particularly if North Korea is truly committed to its efforts to draw in foreign investment.
An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies, also said that during the exercise schedule, the North may opt for a provocative action like a missile launch.
“As it did last year, the North may test its missiles including the Rodong-1 that can travel some 1,300 kilometers,” he said.
“But the North also needs to address international issues that it is involved with, so we will not see tensions intensify as much as two years ago.”