By Kang Seung-woo
With the United Nations (U.N.) Secretary General Ban Ki-moon likely to run in the 2017 presidential election, he may find himself at the center of a tug-of-war between the ruling and opposition parties. Presently, the ruling Saenuri Party seems the more attractive option for the U.N. chief.
"If declaring for the presidency, Ban has no choice but to go to the Saenuri Party," said Bae Jong-chan, chief director of political pollster Research and Research.
Given that votes from conservative people in their 50s and 60s and those from North and South Gyeongsang Province have decided past presidential elections, the Saenuri Party will be a more suitable destination for Ban, Bae noted.
Prof. Chung Goon-gi of Hongik University said, "His credentials and ideological stripes go with the Saenuri Party."
Ban, 70, is from conservative North Chungcheong Province and is a career-long diplomat _ a job with an inclination toward conservatism.
“Although Ban served as a foreign minister under former President Roh Moo-hyun, he has been regarded as a conservative figure," said Chung. Roh and former President Kim Dae-jung, for whom he worked as vice foreign minister were liberals.
Bae said that it is appealing for Ban that the ruling side has no competitive candidate for now.
"The New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) already has two strong candidates in Rep. Moon Jae-in and Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon," he said.
"In addition, should Ban join the main opposition party, it cannot be guaranteed that he will have a solid base of political support within the camp."
Hong Hyeong-sik, director of Hangil Research, said that the presence of Moon and Park means the NPAD are less likely to scout Ban.
"Moon and Park are regarded within the party as a safe bet in the presidential election," Hong said.
According to the latest public poll by cable news network MBN on Jan. 6, Ban was favored by 17.4 percent, followed by Moon, who had 13.5 percent. Park was third with 12.6 percent.
Saenuri Chairman Kim Moo-sung and former Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo are presently the favorite candidates of the ruling party for the upcoming presidential election.
"Should Ban join the Saenuri, he will easily oust them because the two Kims cannot exert more influence over the election than the U.N. chief," said Bae.
He added that Ban's affiliation with the NPAD requires him to appeal to both the pro-Roh faction and anti-Roh lawmakers. He also needs to gain support from North and South Jeolla Province, which are strongholds for the opposition party.
Chung said that Ban's political orientation does not mix well with the NPAD, and in particular the pro-Roh faction.
There is another option for Ban to run in the election as an independent candidate, but analysts call that outcome "out of the question."
"It will not happen that Ban becomes an independent candidate," said Prof. Choi Chang-ryul of Yongin University.
Chung echoed Choi, saying that in Korean politics, it is not easy for an independent to become the president.
"Ban is not in urgency enough to run for the president without a political party," said Chung.