By Kang Seung-woo
North Korea’s potential plan to send its leader to Russia in May had raised hopes for a summit between Kim Jong-un and President Park Geun-hye.
However, such a meeting now appears unlikely because of possible opposition from the two countries’ allies China and the United States, diplomatic pundits said Thursday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin invited world leaders including Kim and Park last month to a celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany on May 9. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Wednesday that the North’s “first signal was positive.”
“Despite the affirmative signal, I think it is less likely that Kim will fly to Russia because of China,” Professor Koh Yoo-hwan at Dongguk University said.
“North Korea and Russia are trying to deepen diplomatic ties, but relations with China are far more important for the North, and should Kim choose Russia for his international debut, Sino-North Korean ties could get worse,” he said.
Although the North has given a positive response, it may think twice over Kim’s visit to Moscow, Koh added.
North Korea has not officially commented on the invitation and still has time to decline it.
Hong Hyun-ik, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, agreed, saying, “The North’s response can be seen as pressure on China toward a summit between Pyongyang and Beijing.”
Since taking power in December 2011, Kim has yet to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has met President Park five times. In addition, the execution of Kim’s uncle Jang Song-thaek ― who was pro-China ― two years ago has further soured bilateral rapport.
"North Korea and Russia are both friendly neighbors of China," China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Thursday.
"We believe that such engagement between the two countries is conducive to regional peace and stability," Hua said.
Should Kim decide to visit Russia, though, it will not be easy for President Park to make it because of icy relations between Moscow and Washington, Hong said.
U.S.-Russia ties are at their lowest in decades since the escalation of fighting in the Ukraine. The U.S. government has denounced Russia for the latter’s interference in its neighboring country.
“The ROK-U.S. alliance will prevent Park from visiting Russia,” Hong said.
“As U.S. President Barack Obama is not likely to go there, the U.S. will not want Park to visit Russia, either.”
Hong added that Washington has urged Seoul to join the U.S.-led sanctions on Russia ― although the Park administration has pursued the “Eurasia Initiative” that is seeking to connect transportation and energy infrastructure from Asia through Russia to Europe.
“Should the U.S. mend fences with Russia, Park may go, but otherwise her trip is unlikely,” Hong said.
In response to the reports regarding Kim’s potential visit, Cheong Wa Dae refrained from comment Thursday, saying that it is considering whether President Park will travel to Russia or not.
“According to foreign reports, the North has just given a positive response. In this regard, it is not the time for the South Korean government to express its stance in a hurry,” presidential spokesman Min Kyung-wook said during a briefing.