By Jun Ji-hye
The United States Defense Department said Thursday it has yet to secure specific evidence to prove that North Korea has attained the technology needed to miniaturize a nuclear warhead.
The view was slightly different from South Korea’s latest analysis in its 2014 Defense White Paper that the reclusive state’s capability has reached the “considerable” level to make a warhead small enough to place on a missile.
This meant the North was closer to developing a long-range nuclear missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
In response to a question about the U.S. assessment of the North’s nuclear capabilities, Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said, “Gen. Scaparrotti stood in our briefing room several months ago and spoke, I think, very eloquently about this. He said that it is prudent for him as a commander to prepare for such a contingency, but that we have no evidence yet that they have achieved that level of technology.”
Gen. Scaparrotti is commander of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
Washington’s assessment came a few days after the Ministry of National Defense released its biennial paper Tuesday in which it concluded that the North’s third nuclear test conducted in February, 2013, accelerated efforts to make nuclear warheads small enough to fit on ballistic missiles.
“The North is believed to have secured some 40 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium by reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods multiple times,” the paper said.
Korea Research Institute for Strategy senior researcher Moon Seong-mook said Seoul’s analysis was based on the general view that acquiring such technology takes between two to seven years, and eight years have passed since Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test.
“Seoul produced the latest analysis as its defense ministry always needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario,” Moon said. “I believe South Korea and the U.S. both agreed that rigorous verification is further necessary to exactly assess the North’s nuclear capability.”
He added that Washington’s assessment could be seen as being in line with its position not to recognize the North as a nuclear state.
Kim Dae-young, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, sided more with Seoul’s position, saying, “The North’s successful development of nuclear-tipped missiles is merely a question of time.”
Even if it were not now, the isolated state would succeed in a few years if it has acquired the necessary technology, he noted.
“Those countries that have developed nuclear weapons have all taken a similar path,” he said.
North Korea conducted three underground nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013.
Meanwhile, the website 38 North, run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said Thursday that the secretive state appeared to be trying to modify submarines that could launch missiles vertically. The website warned that such hard-to-detect, missile-capable submarines would pose a significant threat to South Korea.
The think tank said it reached the assessment based on commercial satellite imagery taken of the Sinpo South Shipyard on the east coast between July and December.
“North Korea's development of a submarine-launched missile capability would eventually expand Pyongyang’s threat to South Korea, Japan and U.S. bases in East Asia, also complicating regional missile defense planning, deployment and operations,” the website said.
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