What to look for in Korean politics this year

By Yi Whan-woo

President Park Geun-hye appears to be under pressure to produce tangible results in her government reform drive in 2015, which marks the third year of her single, five-year term.

The two major political parties ― the ruling Saenuri Party and the main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) ― are expected to undergo internal strife this year because their respective stalwarts are seeking to expand influence ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2016 and the presidential race in 2017.

The following are four major political events that will or are expected to take place in 2015.

Cabinet reshuffle

President Park Geun-hye and her Cabinet members salute the national flag during a visit to the Seoul National Cemetery, Thursday. / Yonhap

The Park Geun-hye administration is anticipated to carry out a cabinet reshuffle in January to solidify the stability of her leadership.

Park faces the risk of becoming a lame duck in the wake of a series of events last year that dealt a considerable blow to the government. These included the Sewol ferry disaster, failures in premier nominations, and alleged meddling into state affairs by her former aide, Jeong Yun-hoe.

Also, there have been growing calls for Park to push for reforms in the labor market and the pension system for government officials before the start of the third year of her presidential term. Concerns are growing that her reform drive may lose steam because of a scandal over leaked documents that detailed an alleged power struggle between her younger brother, Park Ji-man, and Jeong.

The reshuffle may include the position of prime minister.

Prime Minister Chung Hong-won offered to quit on April 27 and accept full responsibility for the government's bungled response to the sinking of the Sewol ferry, but Park’s two choices for premier fell through, so she reinstated Chung.

Meanwhile, ruling Saenuri Party floor leader Lee Wan-koo has been cited as a possible prime minister, while pro-Park lawmakers or reform-minded outsiders are also being considered.

Along with the prime minister, several other ministers may also be replaced.

They include Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae and Justice Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn.

Saenuri Party’s new floor leader election

Saenuri Party Chairman Rep. Kim Moo-sung, center, delivers a New Year’s address at the party’s headquarters in Seoul, Thursday. / Yonhap

The Saenuri Party is scheduled in May to elect a new floor leader to replace Rep. Lee Wan-koo and work with the party’s incumbent chairman Rep. Kim Moo-sung in the year ahead.

The party is mainly divided into supporters of President Park Geun-hye and those that oppose her.

Kim once led the pro-Park group but had become estranged as of late. Depending on the new floor leader’s political affinity with the President, Kim’s new counterpart could either boost or hurt his leadership. Kim is serving a two-year term since July 2014.

In December, the members of the Park faction criticized Kim Moo-sung that he has tried to cut his own political path, sometimes by challenging the President.

About 40 members of the party’s faction gathered for a year-end lunch on Dec. 30, which followed the dinner that Park hosted for a cadre at Cheong Wa Dae on Dec. 19.

The President had reportedly invited them to discuss issues ranging from the government’s personnel renewal to reforming the debt-ridden pension system for civil servants. Kim was not included.

It remains to be seen whether the pro-Park group’s show of force will lead to an internal power struggle and, if so, whether Kim can survive it, considering his relatively weak base in the party.

NPAD leadership race

Reps. Park Jie-won, left, and Moon Jae-in, center, the leading candidates for chairmanship of the main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy, smile during a meeting with party members on Jeju Island, Saturday. / Yonhap

Reps. Moon Jae-in and Park Jie-won, the two heavyweights of the NPAD, have announced their intention to run in the party’s chairmanship election on Feb. 8 at its convention in Seoul.

The new chairman will be selected for a two-year term and will oversee the country’s largest opposition party, which has 130 lawmakers.

Moon, who was previously a 2012 presidential contender, served as a former chief of staff to the late President Roh Moon-hyun from March 2007 to February 2008.

He has recently been embroiled in a dispute over the possibility he may also run in the presidential election in December 2017.

Some party lawmakers are concerned that nominations for the 2016 parliamentary elections and the primary for the 2017 presidential election will likely be determined by the pro-Roh faction if Moon wins the chairmanship race.

Park also served as former chief of staff to the late President Kim Dae-jung, Roh’s predecessor. He leads a faction within the moderate camp.

Revision on electoral map

A National Assembly plenary session gets underway in this Sept. 26, 2014, file photo. / Korea Times file

The National Assembly will discuss the Constitutional Court’s ruling in October on the country’s electoral constituency map.

The Saenuri Party and NPAD appear busy calculating gains and losses ahead of the amendment of the election law by the end of this year.

The Constitutional Court said that the ratio of the most populous electoral district to the least populous constituency must be lower than two to one. The ratio is three to one at present.

The ruling states that electoral districts with larger populations should be divided, whereas those with smaller populations must be merged. Under the current demographics, 35 constituencies ought to be split, and 25 merged.

If the electoral map is redrawn according to the ruling, the number of lawmakers representing Seoul and the metropolitan area will be increased. Meanwhile, the rural districts in Jeolla and Gyeongsang provinces will lose legislators. This will strengthen the equal value of votes, but could undermine the principle of regional representation, the core of representative democracy, at a time when urban concentration is gaining speed.

Some lawmakers have raised the need to increase the number of legislators, which is set at 297 including 51 elected under the proportional representation system.