By Jun Ji-hye
Reps. Kim Han-gil and Ahn Cheol-soo’s sudden decision to form a new coalition party before the June 4 local elections is expected to prompt a huge backlash within the Democratic Party (DP).
Analysts and members from both the DP and Ahn’s supporters said the agreement to form a new coalition party was too hasty to draw sufficient endorsement from party members, and that it therefore faces a bumpy road ahead.
Rep. Kim Kwang-jin of the DP posted on his Facebook: “I didn’t know that the party chairman has such absolute power to unilaterally decide to join hands with another power and create a new party.”
He claimed that Kim did not consult with party members before holding a joint conference with Ahn.
“The decision, which skipped relevant procedures, can never earn support from party members as well as from the people,” he said.
Yoon Hee-woong, Min Consulting’s head of public opinion research, pointed out that Ahn’s party includes previous members from the Saenuri Party, and that these people are likely to object to a merger with the DP.
“Also, as a considerable number of Ahn’s fans are independent voters who tend to distrust the existing parties, the merger could result in this support base leaving the Ahn side,” said Yoon. “Minimizing this will be the most significant task for Ahn.”
Political pundits said the agreement for a coalition party is mainly aimed at resolving concerns over a possible split of opposition voters in the upcoming local polls.
“Once launched, it will reproduce one-on-one competition between the ruling Saenuri Party and the opposition bloc,” said Yoon of Min Consulting. “This will considerably resolve the opposition’s anxiety over the results of the local polls.”
With independent lawmaker Ahn’s earlier announcement to create a new party, the New Political Vision Party, by the end of this month, the local polls were expected to become a three-way race among the ruling Saenuri Party, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), and Ahn’s party.
Watchers anticipated that this could have resulted in unexpected victories for the governing camp due to possible division among liberal voters.
“If DP Chairman Kim and independent Ahn smoothly merge their parties, this could raise expectations toward the opposition bloc to judge the Park Geun-hye government in the local polls,” said Yoon. “Competition between potential candidates from the DP and the Ahn party to be the final candidates are expected to draw the public’s interest as well.”
In a recent survey by Gallup Korea, the governing camp garnered 40 percent support against the DP’s 15 percent and 18 percent for Ahn’s party, indicating that the merger of the DP and the Ahn party could threaten the ruling party.
History also supports a positive outcome for the convergence of different political forces.
When the then Democratic Party created the Democratic United Party in 2011 by combining forces with members of the Federation of Korea Trade Unions and other minor parties, its approval rating took the lead against the Saenuri Party.
“The opposition alliance is expected to be the biggest variable in the local polls,” said Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University. “If it secures victory in June, this could have some impact on the 2017 presidential election as well.”
Kim and Ahn said in a joint press conference that the reason for their decision to join forces is to change the government in the next presidential poll.