By Jun Ji-hye
In the wake of Seoul’s offer for dialogue to resolve inter-Korean problems, including normalizing operations at the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, how North Korea will react is drawing keen attention.
Hours after Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-Jae issued a statement calling on North Korea to reopen dialogue, President Park Geun-hye also said she remained open to talks with the North, at a dinner gathering with lawmakers of the ruling Saenuri Party, Thursday.
“Pyongyang will have to pay a price for its provocations, but the door for talks is always open as the Korean Peninsula trust-building process should operate no matter how difficult the situation is,” Park was quoted as saying.
Analysts do not expect the North to respond immediately to Seoul’s suggestion for dialogue, but such an offer could help check them from staging further provocations.
“The North would not be able to shift swiftly from threat to conversation right now. As they have excessively ratcheted up nuclear tension on the Korean Peninsula, the proposal for dialogue could pose a dilemma for the North,” said Park Young-ho, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU).
KINU’s Park said the South has set the ground for the isolated state to stop threatening national security.
“The North will need some time to think. They will need additional momentum before making a final decision to come forward to the dialogue table as well,” he said.
He said Pyongyang could accept Seoul’s offer to talk in May, after the joint South Korean-U.S. military drill Foal Eagle ends on April 30.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at the Department of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, was more cautious about the North’s response.
“A stronger impetus is necessary to induce the North to shift. In my opinion, it will wait for another offer for dialogue from Washington, for example, for U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to make such comments during his visit to the South,” Kim said.
The secretary of state arrived here Friday and plans to leave for China Saturday.
The professor said Pyongyang would not make a prompt decision but would take a wait-and-see posture.
However, both analysts said Seoul’s proposal to talk seems timely.
“Many international communities, including China and Russia, have raised their voices to criticize the North’s nuclear threats. The North became a target of criticism at the G8 foreign ministers meeting held in London Thursday. Pyongyang seems to be failing to agitate South Korean citizens also,” KINU’s Park said.
He said proposing talks was a “very reasonable step” as it looks like there is no other way out for the North in these circumstances.
Dongguk University’s Kim said, “Such a measure is meaningful as it will play a role in easing the escalation of tensions on the peninsula.”